Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Below I plot the ratio of the PCAC Index (Producer Price Index – All Commodities) vs. the USD Index (DXY) over time along with a ~43-year support line dating back to 1973. While not at support, the ratio is very…...

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Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

China’s equity market has been dead for the past year and it’s 9 mo hi/lo range now < 12%, about tied for lowest on record with similar prints in Mar-01 and Jul-14. Both of the above dates preceded robust expansions…...

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Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Below the ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is plotted in the top pane and the Nikkei alone in the bottom pane. In the top pane the ratio b/t the Yen and Nikkei has collapsed back down to support line…...

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A Look at Historical Secular Bears

A Look at Historical Secular Bears

Consider the very long-term DJI chart below with quarterly price data extending back to the late 19th century. In it you’ll find annotations of the index’s three historical secular bear markets from the early 20th century (1905-1925), off the pre…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

I last updated my mid-cycle pause analog nearly two months ago, all the way back on 9/30/16. The truth of the matter has been that up until the past two weeks post-11/8 U.S. presidential election, that framework seemed all but…...

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Immortan Joe Activates U.S. Cyber War Rig, Moving America Beyond Just Financial Warfare with Russia

Immortan Joe Activates U.S. Cyber War Rig, Moving America Beyond Just Financial Warfare with Russia

Just the other day the deep state trotted out Immortan Joe Biden in an interview with Chuck Todd to let the world know it was planning a “covert” cyber attack on Russia and Putin for their alleged involvement in holding…

Analog Update

Analog Update

I’ve been fooled many times by the market this year with respect to my expectation for runaway SPX strength, which, based on the suggestions provided by our mid-cycle pause analog, I thought would be imminently forthcoming post June, yet has…...

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Multi-Month Gold Consolidation Likely Concluding

Multi-Month Gold Consolidation Likely Concluding

We last updated our thoughts on gold in this post┬álast month. Using analogs in that post we suggested there were ~20 trading days or ~one month until it would reach a nadir, thus concluding a multi-month consolidation that began in…...

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Ratio of Copper vs. Gold at 30-Yr Support, Last Reached Pre-Crash Apr-87, During GFC Jan-09

Ratio of Copper vs. Gold at 30-Yr Support, Last Reached Pre-Crash Apr-87, During GFC Jan-09

In the chart below the ratio of copper vs. gold is about to hit 30-year support. This ratio has been touched only two other times over that 30-year history – once in Apr-87 prior to the Aug-87 equity market peak…

Gold Update

Gold Update

In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to┬árally in…...

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