Approaching a Cyclical Low in EM Equities

Approaching a Cyclical Low in EM Equities

For some time I’ve maintained the view that since peaking in 2007, EM equities have been in a secular bear akin to the two witnessed on the DJI from 1906-1925 and 1966-1985.  That said, as secular bears go, such cycles…...

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Corn - As Oversold as It Gets

Corn – As Oversold as It Gets

Below I plot the 7-yr RoC in corn.  At its worst point in Aug-18 it printed -54%, a touch above the two worst readings in history including Aug-87 and Jun-03, both at -56%. After the bombed out 1987 and 2003…

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites

Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history.  Today, I switch gears and show ratios of major global composites vs. the SPX, mostly non-US ones.  This will help spell out where…...

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Team Trump Publicly Echoing McKinley, but in the Spirit of FDR and Nixon

Team Trump Publicly Echoing McKinley, but in the Spirit of FDR and Nixon

Over the past year I’ve spent much time on this site detailing the bullish/bearish case for gold miners and the USD. The axis of this thesis spins on the idea that 2018 is analogous to the early 1930s and 1970s,…...

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Equities vs. Commodities - Something Still Has to Give

Equities vs. Commodities – Something Still Has to Give

Throughout 2018 I’ve covered the historically fast and deep decline in commodities vs. stocks over the decade that has ensued since the former peaked in 2008.   See here and here as background. I wanted to revisit the topic again just…...

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It Can Get Worse for China

It Can Get Worse for China

Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...

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History's Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

History’s Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

It’s one thing to analyze trough-peak equity cycles, indexing to 100% off a major low; it’s another to study them peak-peak, indexing to 100% off a major high, following both the ensuing bear market and the subsequent rebound and bull…...

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BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low

BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low

Below I plot the trailing two month (60 days given weekend trading) price VOL [(max close-min close)/average close] of BTC. Historically, VOL always bottomed b/t 10%-15% whereas the current print of 8.9% is the tightest on record dating back to…...

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Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K.  Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...

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Symmetry in Palladium's Secular Cycles

Symmetry in Palladium’s Secular Cycles

Below I analog two separate palladium secular cycles, one from 1980-2001 and the other from 2001-current. Note the high degree of historical symmetry b/t these two cycles. At the moment, palladium is clearing its 2001 secular highs at the 100%…...

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