Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

I last updated my mid-cycle pause analog nearly two months ago, all the way back on 9/30/16. The truth of the matter has been that up until the past two weeks post-11/8 U.S. presidential election, that framework seemed all but…...

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Immortan Joe Activates U.S. Cyber War Rig, Moving America Beyond Just Financial Warfare with Russia

Immortan Joe Activates U.S. Cyber War Rig, Moving America Beyond Just Financial Warfare with Russia

Just the other day the deep state trotted out Immortan Joe Biden in an interview with Chuck Todd to let the world know it was planning a “covert” cyber attack on Russia and Putin for their alleged involvement in holding…

Analog Update

Analog Update

I’ve been fooled many times by the market this year with respect to my expectation for runaway SPX strength, which, based on the suggestions provided by our mid-cycle pause analog, I thought would be imminently forthcoming post June, yet has…...

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Multi-Month Gold Consolidation Likely Concluding

Multi-Month Gold Consolidation Likely Concluding

We last updated our thoughts on gold in this post┬álast month. Using analogs in that post we suggested there were ~20 trading days or ~one month until it would reach a nadir, thus concluding a multi-month consolidation that began in…...

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Ratio of Copper vs. Gold at 30-Yr Support, Last Reached Pre-Crash Apr-87, During GFC Jan-09

Ratio of Copper vs. Gold at 30-Yr Support, Last Reached Pre-Crash Apr-87, During GFC Jan-09

In the chart below the ratio of copper vs. gold is about to hit 30-year support. This ratio has been touched only two other times over that 30-year history – once in Apr-87 prior to the Aug-87 equity market peak…

Gold Update

Gold Update

In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to┬árally in…...

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US Equity Analog Update

US Equity Analog Update

I’ve been waiting for the market to inflect lower as the mid-cycle pause analogs have suggested it should start to do, rather than just print sideways as it’s done for the past two weeks, before updating them. With today’s ~100…...

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Crude Should Begin to Stabilize

Crude Should Begin to Stabilize

Below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude in the top pane and crude alone in the bottom pane. Over the past ~30 years the ratio b/t the Nikkei and crude has traveled in a downward sloping channel…

Gold Now in a Sustained, Structural Bull Market; On Average, History Suggests ~175% Incremental Upside

Gold Now in a Sustained, Structural Bull Market; On Average, History Suggests ~175% Incremental Upside

The last time we discussed gold on the site was a few weeks back in this post; therein we suggested a break-down in USDZAR was at hand and that should history hold, it would help propel and/or coincide with additional…

Tactically, USDZAR Break-Down Favorable for Gold; Strategically, Still Believe 2011 Was Not "The" High for the PM's Secular Bull Run

Tactically, USDZAR Break-Down Favorable for Gold; Strategically, Still Believe 2011 Was Not “The” High for the PM’s Secular Bull Run

After more than a 2x move off its 2011 lows, the USD put in what appeared to be be a fairly pronounced, multi-year (if not secular) peak in Jan-16 against ZAR. Since then, USDZAR has trended lower, consolidating around that…...

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