EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows

EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows

Using standard (20, 2) inputs, last week’s Bollinger Band (BB) print on EURUSD stood at 2.3%, up mildly from the recent low of 2.2% posted in early March. That’s the tightest reading in over 40 years.  Not since 1977 when the BB printed…...

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Relative VOL of UK Equity and FX Printing All-Time Highs into BREXIT Vote

Relative VOL of UK Equity and FX Printing All-Time Highs into BREXIT Vote

Here’s a plot of the ratio b/t UK and US-based equity VOL.  It’s printing all-time highs at the moment, well above previous highs.  In the past, spikes to similar, yet slightly lower highs, have tended to approximate near-term capitulation lows…...

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All the Macro that's Fit to Print

All the Macro that’s Fit to Print

Every corner rounded seems to be producing a different chimera to be contended with at the moment. BREXIT, growing portions of sovereign debt lurching into negative-yield territory, NIRP chaos and its impact on Euro banks, China deval/credit collapse, Islamo-fascism, Fed tightening and…...

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Maastricht Treaty, ERM2 Fraying?

Maastricht Treaty, ERM2 Fraying?

I’ve recently shown, via the chart below, that the ratio of the DJ Stoxx 600 vs. SPX is nearing 20+ year channel support. Said support has only been hit one other time, in fall-92. The relevance of that period is…

DAX is Unequivocally in a Major Bear Market

DAX is Unequivocally in a Major Bear Market

The chart below plots the DAX against off its Apr-15 high vs. the paths it took off its two other most recent and major structural highs, those being the Mar-00 and Oct-07 peaks that led to 65% and 55% bear…

Nigh is the Day of GREXIT?

Nigh is the Day of GREXIT?

Much has recently been made about this past weekend’s leak regarding a recent discussion two senior IMF officials had over triggering an “event” that would force Greek to comply with the EU/IMF demands heading into negotiations re: upcoming debt maturities. The timing…...

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Euro Approaching L-T Support, Reaction Will Have Material Implications for Future Trajectory of Inflation/Deflation Thematic

Euro Approaching L-T Support, Reaction Will Have Material Implications for Future Trajectory of Inflation/Deflation Thematic

As I look back on the site in recent weeks/months it seems clear that the work has begun to shift toward the thematic of a deflation/inflation debate.  Or, more specifically, the site’s thematic increasingly seems to reveal a world lurching, at accelerating…...

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Working Thesis for 2015

Working Thesis for 2015

It’s that time again.  Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year.  If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”.  By…...

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Time to Buy This Euro Financial

Time to Buy This Euro Financial

Three charts below: 1) Euro – weekly: breaking out above trend-line resistance 2) Ratio – DJ Euro Financials Index vs. SPX – weekly: breaking out above trend-line resistance 3) NBG – weekly: sits atop important support line (1) and is…...

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Euro Approaching Resistance

Euro Approaching Resistance

In the chart below the Euro is very close to reaching resistance line (1) which has been in place since April/May 2011 as global risk assets first began topping out in front of the summer/fall mini-crash in the SPX. Using…