Capitulation Near?

Capitulation Near?

The SPX is now ~300 bps off its all-time high of ~2,400 in early March. The decline so far has been less of a correction, but more along the lines of another pause, similar to the one witnessed in Sep-Oct…...

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Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a "Major" Top?)

Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top?)

“Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think that you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong.” — Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged As intensely volatile – and often times scary – as the…

Relative VOL of UK Equity and FX Printing All-Time Highs into BREXIT Vote

Relative VOL of UK Equity and FX Printing All-Time Highs into BREXIT Vote

Here’s a plot of the ratio b/t UK and US-based equity VOL.  It’s printing all-time highs at the moment, well above previous highs.  In the past, spikes to similar, yet slightly lower highs, have tended to approximate near-term capitulation lows…...

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Massive Break-Out in Trade-Weighted USD vs. SPX Signals Intensification of Global Financial Stress

Massive Break-Out in Trade-Weighted USD vs. SPX Signals Intensification of Global Financial Stress

In the first chart below I show a scatter plot of the weekly returns in the trade-weighted USD (USTWBROA; y-axis) vs. gold (x-axis) dating back 20 years into 1995. The red dot is this week’s data point.  Note that this…...

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ROC in TED Spreads Now Unbearable to System & Suggests Imminent Global Deflationary Collapse Ex Major CB Intervention Program

ROC in TED Spreads Now Unbearable to System & Suggests Imminent Global Deflationary Collapse Ex Major CB Intervention Program

TED spreads continue blowing out today, reaching 41 bps! Over the past two weeks they have now climbed ~60%. This two-week RoC is near unprecedented since 2007 save for the following discreet events: Mar-08 Sep-08 May-10 Aug-11 Make note, in…...

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TED Spreads Breaking Above 30 Years of Resistance Signals Need for Immediate CB Intervention

TED Spreads Breaking Above 30 Years of Resistance Signals Need for Immediate CB Intervention

In the chart below I plot TED spreads in the top panel (a topic initially visited yesterday), the SPX in the middle panel and gold in the bottom panel, all on a weekly basis. As can be seen in the…...

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Where Did All the Equity VOL Go?

Where Did All the Equity VOL Go?

Much has been made of late about the absence of domestic equity market VOL; seemingly, much of that VOL, or at least the pretense of it in the financial press, appears to be focused on global sovereign debt instead. I decided…...

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U.S. Equity VOL Set to Decline

U.S. Equity VOL Set to Decline

In the chart below VIX futures are breaking down from a ~one-year flag pattern formed b/t lines (1) and (2) on a daily basis.  Presumably, this implies U.S.-based equity VOL is set to fall over the near to intermediate-term. At…...

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Pivot Point Analog Update

Pivot Point Analog Update

We originally added our Nikkei pivot point logic to our overall framework of analyzing the index in early December of last year in this post. Thus far, the path the Nikkei has traveled following its 10/17/14 pivot point low print of…...

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Price Momentum in U.S. Equities is Coiled

Price Momentum in U.S. Equities is Coiled

In August 2013 we had a very simple pattern-recognition post on the USD that suggested price volatility on the currency index would expand in the near-term.  The unique aspect of the post was that we our pattern assessment on the USD was being…...

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