![EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-03-26-EURUSD-w-Bollinger-Bands-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows
Using standard (20, 2) inputs, last week’s Bollinger Band (BB) print on EURUSD stood at 2.3%, up mildly from the recent low of 2.2% posted in early March. That’s the tightest reading in over 40 years. Not since 1977 when the BB printed…...
![BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2018-11-06-BTC-Trailing-60-Day-Price-VOL-Daily.png?resize=150%2C150)
BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low
Below I plot the trailing two month (60 days given weekend trading) price VOL [(max close-min close)/average close] of BTC. Historically, VOL always bottomed b/t 10%-15% whereas the current print of 8.9% is the tightest on record dating back to…...
![Chinese-Inspired Red October?](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2018-10-05-Ratio-Gold-vs.-CNYUSD-Weekly-1.png?resize=150%2C150)
Chinese-Inspired Red October?
The ratio of gold vs. CNYUSD has coiled up into what appears to be a bullish pattern in the chart below, with numerous bullish RSI deviations even as price has pushed lower over the past 18 months. This means one…...
![VIX Aiming for Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2018-04-09-VIX-Four-Consecutive-Monthly-Gains-w-SPX-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
VIX Aiming for Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain
Though Apr-18 is yet young, VIX is up 9% month-to-date vs. its Mar-18 close of ~20. An up Apr-18 would be VIX’s fourth consecutive monthly gain. At its current 21.77, the cumulative gain across that period would be +97% vs. the…...
![Capitulation Near?](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017-04-17-Ratio-1-vs.-3-Mo-VIX-Daily.png?resize=150%2C150)
Capitulation Near?
The SPX is now ~300 bps off its all-time high of ~2,400 in early March. The decline so far has been less of a correction, but more along the lines of another pause, similar to the one witnessed in Sep-Oct…...
![Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a "Major" Top?)](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/rand.jpg?resize=150%2C150)
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top?)
“Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think that you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong.” — Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged As intensely volatile – and often times scary – as the…
![Relative VOL of UK Equity and FX Printing All-Time Highs into BREXIT Vote](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/2016-06-21-Ratio-UK-vs.-US-VIX-Daily-1.png?resize=150%2C150)
Relative VOL of UK Equity and FX Printing All-Time Highs into BREXIT Vote
Here’s a plot of the ratio b/t UK and US-based equity VOL. It’s printing all-time highs at the moment, well above previous highs. In the past, spikes to similar, yet slightly lower highs, have tended to approximate near-term capitulation lows…...
![Massive Break-Out in Trade-Weighted USD vs. SPX Signals Intensification of Global Financial Stress](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2016-01-19-Scatter-Trade-Weighted-Broad-Dollar-USTWBROA-vs.-SPX-Weekly-10-Yrs.png?resize=150%2C150)
Massive Break-Out in Trade-Weighted USD vs. SPX Signals Intensification of Global Financial Stress
In the first chart below I show a scatter plot of the weekly returns in the trade-weighted USD (USTWBROA; y-axis) vs. gold (x-axis) dating back 20 years into 1995. The red dot is this week’s data point. Note that this…...
![ROC in TED Spreads Now Unbearable to System & Suggests Imminent Global Deflationary Collapse Ex Major CB Intervention Program](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2015-12-21-TED-Spreads-2-Week-RoC-with-SPX-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
ROC in TED Spreads Now Unbearable to System & Suggests Imminent Global Deflationary Collapse Ex Major CB Intervention Program
TED spreads continue blowing out today, reaching 41 bps! Over the past two weeks they have now climbed ~60%. This two-week RoC is near unprecedented since 2007 save for the following discreet events: Mar-08 Sep-08 May-10 Aug-11 Make note, in…...
![TED Spreads Breaking Above 30 Years of Resistance Signals Need for Immediate CB Intervention](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2015-12-18-TED-Spread-with-SPX-Gold-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
TED Spreads Breaking Above 30 Years of Resistance Signals Need for Immediate CB Intervention
In the chart below I plot TED spreads in the top panel (a topic initially visited yesterday), the SPX in the middle panel and gold in the bottom panel, all on a weekly basis. As can be seen in the…...