Where Did All the Equity VOL Go?
Much has been made of late about the absence of domestic equity market VOL; seemingly, much of that VOL, or at least the pretense of it in the financial press, appears to be focused on global sovereign debt instead. I decided…...
U.S. Equity VOL Set to Decline
In the chart below VIX futures are breaking down from a ~one-year flag pattern formed b/t lines (1) and (2) on a daily basis. Presumably, this implies U.S.-based equity VOL is set to fall over the near to intermediate-term. At…...
Pivot Point Analog Update
We originally added our Nikkei pivot point logic to our overall framework of analyzing the index in early December of last year in this post. Thus far, the path the Nikkei has traveled following its 10/17/14 pivot point low print of…...
Price Momentum in U.S. Equities is Coiled
In August 2013 we had a very simple pattern-recognition post on the USD that suggested price volatility on the currency index would expand in the near-term. The unique aspect of the post was that we our pattern assessment on the USD was being…...
Quirkiness in the VOL Arena
Chart below plots n-t VOL (VIX) vs. 3 mo VOL (VXV) on a ratio basis. As I type at 3:55 PM EST on 7/17/14 that ratio is printing ~1.20. Note that in the chart below, via the horizontal green line,…...
Signs Point to Additional Near-Term Downside in Riskier Assets
In the chart below I plot the R2K over the past few years along with the Dow from 1989-1991 as well as a plot of the recent price action of the VIX. At (A) the R2K put in a fairly…...
PMs Experienced a Crash of Sorts in April, Now What?
I’m not convinced that when an asset experiences a crash/mini-crash-like event as PMs did in April that they immediately bottom and begin a sustained thrust higher like nothing happened. Such technical destruction tends to result in highly volatile bottoming processes…....
Evolving Thoughts on How PMs Might Work into the Overall Macro Framework
Here’s a chart originally shown the other day comparing silver’s move from 1967-1973 vs. 2010-2014. The two share a good deal of similarity. If the pattern recognition is correct, silver might presumably begin to base in the $19-$20 area in the next few weeks,…...
The Nikkei’s 99.99th Percentile Price Action
With the Nikkei’s massive move last night it has managed a two-day, +530 bps rally. At the same time, its bull cycle is stretched as the four-year RoC already stands at +44%. In other words, though being deep in the…...
Philippine PSE Composite Portending Heightened Global Instability Again?
The Philippine PSE Composite faces material long-term resistance lines (1) and (2) in the chart below. It’s been at these lines where the Asian financial crisis of 1997 began, where the U.S. tech bubble explosion accelerated in 2000 and where…...