What’s Green Today (Nat Gas a Safe Haven)?
Safe havens – gold, USD, Yen and U.S. bonds. Strangely enough though, so is Nat Gas. In fact, it’s the greenest thing on the screen. Coincidence when we find that in Cyrpus the government has promised to repay savers enduring…
Updating the Comparison of the SPX Rally off the August 2011 Weekly Closing Low vs. Other Major Rallies Through History
The chart below compares the rally off the August 2011 weekly closing low in the SPX (black line) vs. the average rally off of some of history’s other major lows. The red line is the average rally off the 1962, 1974,…...
Systematic Model Update
The model generated its first sell signal yesterday, 8/20, since March 12th. As I highlight in the chart below, this means NOTHING until one of two things happen (or both): 1) We see lots of choppiness around this proximate top 2)…...
Systematic Models Signaling Long or Short Right Here?
Close, but no cigar on the short signal. Only 9% in incremental complacency and we’ll get there on the systematic model. Probably down to about two-four trading days in terms of time. After that, we need to see volatility (choppy…...
Potential Set-Up for Equities into Jackson Hole, Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling on the ESM 9/12 and the Fed Meeting Concluding 9/13
I hope you’ve picked up on my tone becoming less bullish in the near-term. I’ve not become bearish, but I have become less sanguine about the potential for the market to rally at escape velocity speed in the near-term. In…...
Additional Thoughts on the VIX
Yesterday the VIX crossed below 14 and closed below that threshold for the first time in over a year. It’s done this (i.e., close below 14 for the first time in over a year) only two other times in history…...
VIX Approaching Long-Term Support; Signaling Global Risks About to Flare?
In the chart below the VIX is approaching long-term support line (1). Since 2007, it has been along this line where the VIX has experienced its most notable rips and the SPX its most notable dips and tops. Should the VIX…
The VIX Has Compressed Notably of Late; What about other “Complacency” Indicators?
This is the third post I’ve put up behind the “protected” wall today, so hopefully you guys can give me a break tomorrow if no such posts appear. Anyhow, much has been made of the recent drop in the VIX,…...
If This Remains a Secular Bear, Cycle Analysis Dating Back to 1896 Suggests the Current Cyclical Rally is Extended in Magnitude and Duration
First chart below presents the DJIA on a weekly basis dating back to 1896 for pure context. The chart below is more important as it zooms in on the 1896-1950 period. This period was not unlike that experienced over the…...
Does Volatility Tell us anything about the Potential for a Sustained Move Higher?
If history holds, YES! And that probability is reasonably high. If the market meets certain qualifications today (most importantly, if the VIX closes < 17.8 and one other item) our proprietary “fear” and volatility-based market timing tool will have provided its first…...