Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update: First Signs of Euphoria?
Since I last updated my big-picture, mid-cycle pause analog framework for assessing US equities in mid-October in this post, optimism about Trump’s tax plan and its ability to successfully sail through Congress has mounted. Tax-related optimism has begun to infect…...
No Good Bulls
Below I plot last week’s AAII reading for bulls. At just 19%, there are among the fewest % of bullish respondents in the survey’s history dating back to the early 90s. Indeed, there have only been 17 other readings this…...
Geniuses Abound
As of late, I took notice that the “dumb” money has been feeling pretty good about the market and its prospects for additional upside. I suppose that happens when stocks go up for five consecutive years, culminating in this year’s…...
Additional Market Internals Suggest Panic Selling of Late
The vestige of 2008/2009 (or the summers of 2010/2011) and the specter of similar such events to come, seem to result in panic-induced selling quite frequently anymore. It seems as if market internals get ravaged so quickly that mere ~5%…...
How Bearish is Gold Sentiment?
Not all that bearish, at least in the context of history, when gold is in a bear market, according to SentimenTrader. In other words, public opinion can sour much further than it already has, and stay that way, when the…
Recent Nikkei Price Action Rare in Context of Nearly 120 Years of Dow Trading History
The Nikkei gained 19.3% in 1Q13. Impressive, no doubt. How impressive? Since the late 1890s the Dow has had only 11 quarters where it’s gained at least 19%, making such occurrences a 2.4/100 event. I present those instances in the…...
Updated Thoughts on Coffee
As a refresher, here’s some background on our evolving coffee thesis, as well as right here. Though the set-up has been somewhat technically appealing at times, we’ve correctly remained on the sidelines/bearish and have watched the product’s price decline ~20%…...
Though Such an Outcome May Not Be Imminent, Evidence Supporting Another 1929, 1937 or 1987-Style Event is Becoming Robust
As of 3/14 last week the Dow had been up 10 consecutive days. Dating back to the late 1800s there have been 35 such runs, including the most recent. In reality, the signal has only come 13x originally speaking as…...
What’s Green Today (Nat Gas a Safe Haven)?
Safe havens – gold, USD, Yen and U.S. bonds. Strangely enough though, so is Nat Gas. In fact, it’s the greenest thing on the screen. Coincidence when we find that in Cyrpus the government has promised to repay savers enduring…
Global Geo-Political Tensions about to Rise?
The ratio of the DJ Airlines Index vs. SPX is nearing a critical piece of resistance in the chart below. Interestingly, every time this resistance has been in play important geo-political events (including 9/11), especially those concerning the Middle East,…