Commodity Rally to be Short-Lived?
We’ve had a few posts on the site about coffee since 2012. These posts have centered around: 1) Coffee’s April 2011 high was a major top, analogous to only a few other such tops in its history 2) Coffee would…...
Arabica Update
Per the chart below, coffee remains caught in a bullish, descending wedge pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). It appears to be pressing the top of that pattern’s resistance at line (1), suggesting a break-out may be nigh. Additionally, the…...
When will This Commodity’s Downside End?
Warming up to coffee given the historical tendency for downside to abate when the two year RoC (i.e,. price momentum) reaches the -55% level, as it is now. This is in contrast to our ardent bearishness on the product dating…...
Updated Thoughts on Coffee
As a refresher, here’s some background on our evolving coffee thesis, as well as right here. Though the set-up has been somewhat technically appealing at times, we’ve correctly remained on the sidelines/bearish and have watched the product’s price decline ~20%…...
As Suggested in October, Coffee Could Continue to Disappoint Long Positions Over the Intermediate-Term
In early October when coffee stood at ~160+ we had a rather detailed post explaining why we thought it would continue to disappoint longs over the intermediate-term, despite the fact that it had sold off materially already and commercial players had…...
Although it Sits on 10-Year Support, Coffee Could Continue to Disappoint over the Intermediate-Term
The chart below reflects the fact that coffee futures sit on 10-year support line (1) dating back to 2002. It also highlights the fact that commercial hedgers, who more often than not tend to get inflection points correct in the…...