![Commodity Rally to be Short-Lived?](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014-02-04-Coffee-Analog-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Commodity Rally to be Short-Lived?
We’ve had a few posts on the site about coffee since 2012. These posts have centered around: 1) Coffee’s April 2011 high was a major top, analogous to only a few other such tops in its history 2) Coffee would…...
![Arabica Update](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/2013-09-09-Coffee-Daily.png?resize=150%2C150)
Arabica Update
Per the chart below, coffee remains caught in a bullish, descending wedge pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). It appears to be pressing the top of that pattern’s resistance at line (1), suggesting a break-out may be nigh. Additionally, the…...
![When will This Commodity's Downside End?](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/2013-06-26-Coffee-w-104-Week-RoC-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
When will This Commodity’s Downside End?
Warming up to coffee given the historical tendency for downside to abate when the two year RoC (i.e,. price momentum) reaches the -55% level, as it is now. This is in contrast to our ardent bearishness on the product dating…...
![Updated Thoughts on Coffee](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/2013-03-19-Coffee-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Updated Thoughts on Coffee
As a refresher, here’s some background on our evolving coffee thesis, as well as right here. Though the set-up has been somewhat technically appealing at times, we’ve correctly remained on the sidelines/bearish and have watched the product’s price decline ~20%…...
![As Suggested in October, Coffee Could Continue to Disappoint Long Positions Over the Intermediate-Term](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/2013-01-04-coffee-major-top-analog-weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
As Suggested in October, Coffee Could Continue to Disappoint Long Positions Over the Intermediate-Term
In early October when coffee stood at ~160+ we had a rather detailed post explaining why we thought it would continue to disappoint longs over the intermediate-term, despite the fact that it had sold off materially already and commercial players had…...
Although it Sits on 10-Year Support, Coffee Could Continue to Disappoint over the Intermediate-Term
The chart below reflects the fact that coffee futures sit on 10-year support line (1) dating back to 2002. It also highlights the fact that commercial hedgers, who more often than not tend to get inflection points correct in the…...