Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...

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Final Preparations and Focus for Nikkei Rally to 40K

Final Preparations and Focus for Nikkei Rally to 40K

As I recently did with my silver work, today we focus on the tactical aspects of our broader, more strategic call for the Nikkei to hit 40K this or next year, first outlined here and then here. Put simply, I believe…...

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Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds

Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds

“They have no choice, they’re either going to make the trades fair…and if it’s not fixed we’re not going to deal with these countries.” – President Trump at G7 Those sound like fightin’ words to me and they were largely directed…...

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Japan Chart Dump

Japan Chart Dump

I continue to believe, as crazy as it sounds, that the Nikkei might round-trip its 30-yr decline from 40K in 1989 by getting back to that level either this or next year. I’ve outlined the case for this scenario two…

Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely

Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely

In late Dec-17 I outlined a case for the Nikkei reaching 40K during 2018 in this post. As ridiculous as that sounded at the time, I thought the analytical justification was sound.  Generally, the Nikkei’s path from 1989-Dec-17 was highly analogous…...

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The Case for Nikkei 40K in 2018

The Case for Nikkei 40K in 2018

In mid-October I updated my thinking on the Nikkei, asking in this post whether its break above quarter-century resistance meant it was finally “game-on” for the region’s much beleaguered equities after what seemed to be an enduring, generational secular bear…

Japan: Game On?

Japan: Game On?

I think the answer to this post’s title is a resounding ‘yes’. Having said that, I’ve been spilling ink on this site about Japan dating back to 2012 (there are 102 posts in the site’s N225 category), so it’s probably…...

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Tracking Regional EU Progress

Tracking Regional EU Progress

On 3/28 we noted that Portuguese equities, via the PSI20 Index, had coiled noticeably into what looked to be a bullish pattern that resembled the N225 in late 2012 and SHCOMP in spring/summer 2014 before their ensuing six month and…...

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Un-Hedged Japan Attempting to Clear Multi-Decade, Secular Bear Resistance

Un-Hedged Japan Attempting to Clear Multi-Decade, Secular Bear Resistance

Below we plot EWJ over the past ~20 years of its history. EWJ is the Japan/N-225 tracker but is currency un-hedged unlike DXJ, which hedges FX.  So, being long EWJ is being long Japanese stocks in JPY-terms. Thus, if EWJ…...

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Closing the Loop on Japan & China

Closing the Loop on Japan & China

In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...

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