Tracking Regional EU Progress

Tracking Regional EU Progress

On 3/28 we noted that Portuguese equities, via the PSI20 Index, had coiled noticeably into what looked to be a bullish pattern that resembled the N225 in late 2012 and SHCOMP in spring/summer 2014 before their ensuing six month and…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Un-Hedged Japan Attempting to Clear Multi-Decade, Secular Bear Resistance

Un-Hedged Japan Attempting to Clear Multi-Decade, Secular Bear Resistance

Below we plot EWJ over the past ~20 years of its history. EWJ is the Japan/N-225 tracker but is currency un-hedged unlike DXJ, which hedges FX.  So, being long EWJ is being long Japanese stocks in JPY-terms. Thus, if EWJ…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Closing the Loop on Japan & China

Closing the Loop on Japan & China

In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Below the ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is plotted in the top pane and the Nikkei alone in the bottom pane. In the top pane the ratio b/t the Yen and Nikkei has collapsed back down to support line…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Crude Should Begin to Stabilize

Crude Should Begin to Stabilize

Below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude in the top pane and crude alone in the bottom pane. Over the past ~30 years the ratio b/t the Nikkei and crude has traveled in a downward sloping channel…

Y(EN)-TERVENTION Imminent?

Y(EN)-TERVENTION Imminent?

When one thinks about the world’s largest exporters of “widgets”, China and Japan come to mind first. Which, in turn, should lead one to a consideration of the JPYCNY cross. Now, given the CNY peg to USD, the JPYCNY cross…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Cross-Asset Macro Relationships Signal Crude Bottom

Cross-Asset Macro Relationships Signal Crude Bottom

In the chart below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude. This ratio has traded in a downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) since the 80s. The ratio hit channel resistance line (1) in Jan-16 for…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Nikkei Still On Track Despite Summer Mishap?

Nikkei Still On Track Despite Summer Mishap?

I’ve not updated any of our Nikkei framework since 8/10 in this post.  It was in that post where we provided an analog update comparing the Nikkei off its swing high in May-13 onward vs. the DJI off its own…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
After Brief Respite, Rates Set to Rise Again

After Brief Respite, Rates Set to Rise Again

After a brief respite, I believe rates are set to rise again, especially on the long bond. This was a thesis we originally laid out here on 6/15/15.  That day rates on the 30 yr closed at 3.09% vs. the…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Nikkei Back Above Critical Support

Nikkei Back Above Critical Support

On the 60 min chart of USD-denominated Nikkei futures below, the index can be seen to have reclaimed critical support line (1) as of the close of trading yesterday.  Upside has continued this AM to solidify that move. Line (1)…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register