Recipe for a Major Blow-Off?
Here’s an updated look at the 30-yr secular bear market analog showing the Nikkei’s path since its all-time high of ~40K in 1989 vs. 30-yr bears traced out by the same index 1920-1950 and silver 1980-2010. As I’ve said repeatedly,…...
Japan: Historically Cheap
I want to preface by stating I consider valuation analysis the least important part of process. It’s usefulness for calling a major inflection point in any asset class is or approaches zero. However, as part of a broader analytical tool-kit,…...
Historic Rally Set to Take Place in USDJPY, Nikkei?
Below I plot USDJPY on a monthly closing basis dating back to the 1950s. Beyond the fact that the resistance is nearly 50 years old, it begins when Nixon abandons the gold standard in 1971 and runs atop the 1985 high that…
Global Macro Round-Up
FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue. USDCNY is currently testing…...
Hand-in-Glove
As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history. The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but when the ratio makes big directional moves, it…...
Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?
The Nikkei’s prominent Mar-Nov-12 peak and subsequent corrective/consolidation (A) looks an awful lot like the the recent Jan-18-current version (B), which I compare in the chart below. Via the analog, note the similarities b/t the respective periods’ corrections and consolidations. Also note…...
Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications
Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver. August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing. It shows that the bear cycle…...
JGB Yields Breaking Out of Massive Multi-Century Descending Wedge Pattern
Laugh all you want about the merits of multi-century technical analysis (patterns are patterns), and below I attempt just that on 10-yr JGB yields, which are breaking out of a massive descending wedge pattern dating back to the late 1800s…...
Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event
In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...
Final Preparations and Focus for Nikkei Rally to 40K
As I recently did with my silver work, today we focus on the tactical aspects of our broader, more strategic call for the Nikkei to hit 40K this or next year, first outlined here and then here. Put simply, I believe…...