Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds
“They have no choice, they’re either going to make the trades fair…and if it’s not fixed we’re not going to deal with these countries.” – President Trump at G7 Those sound like fightin’ words to me and they were largely directed…...
Japan Chart Dump
I continue to believe, as crazy as it sounds, that the Nikkei might round-trip its 30-yr decline from 40K in 1989 by getting back to that level either this or next year. I’ve outlined the case for this scenario two…
Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely
In late Dec-17 I outlined a case for the Nikkei reaching 40K during 2018 in this post. As ridiculous as that sounded at the time, I thought the analytical justification was sound. Generally, the Nikkei’s path from 1989-Dec-17 was highly analogous…...
The Case for Nikkei 40K in 2018
In mid-October I updated my thinking on the Nikkei, asking in this post whether its break above quarter-century resistance meant it was finally “game-on” for the region’s much beleaguered equities after what seemed to be an enduring, generational secular bear…
Japan: Game On?
I think the answer to this post’s title is a resounding ‘yes’. Having said that, I’ve been spilling ink on this site about Japan dating back to 2012 (there are 102 posts in the site’s N225 category), so it’s probably…...
Tracking Regional EU Progress
On 3/28 we noted that Portuguese equities, via the PSI20 Index, had coiled noticeably into what looked to be a bullish pattern that resembled the N225 in late 2012 and SHCOMP in spring/summer 2014 before their ensuing six month and…...
Un-Hedged Japan Attempting to Clear Multi-Decade, Secular Bear Resistance
Below we plot EWJ over the past ~20 years of its history. EWJ is the Japan/N-225 tracker but is currency un-hedged unlike DXJ, which hedges FX. So, being long EWJ is being long Japanese stocks in JPY-terms. Thus, if EWJ…...
Closing the Loop on Japan & China
In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...
Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points
Below the ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is plotted in the top pane and the Nikkei alone in the bottom pane. In the top pane the ratio b/t the Yen and Nikkei has collapsed back down to support line…...
Crude Should Begin to Stabilize
Below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude in the top pane and crude alone in the bottom pane. Over the past ~30 years the ratio b/t the Nikkei and crude has traveled in a downward sloping channel…