History's Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

History’s Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

It’s one thing to analyze trough-peak equity cycles, indexing to 100% off a major low; it’s another to study them peak-peak, indexing to 100% off a major high, following both the ensuing bear market and the subsequent rebound and bull…...

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Gold/Silver Ratio - Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver.  August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing.  It shows that the bear cycle…...

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Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002.  Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...

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A Look at Historical Secular Bears

A Look at Historical Secular Bears

Consider the very long-term DJI chart below with quarterly price data extending back to the late 19th century. In it you’ll find annotations of the index’s three historical secular bear markets from the early 20th century (1905-1925), off the pre…...

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The Federal Reserve's Epochal Bubble-Creating, Cycle-Breaking Abilities

The Federal Reserve’s Epochal Bubble-Creating, Cycle-Breaking Abilities

The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high in late-2014, surpassing the previous one it put in place in the early 2000s at the height of the tech bubble. This successful reclamation project was quite a feat – in accomplishing it…...

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Semis On Deck

Semis On Deck

Our views on semis have evolved as follows over the past year+: 10/15/12: “…we believe semiconductors have more relative downside left vs. the broader market…” 7/16/13: “…we are ready to make a high conviction industry call on semi-conductors and suggest over-weighting the…...

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Anatomy of a Crash

Anatomy of a Crash

Look at the ramps and subsequent crash set-ups in the Dow (20s), Nikkei (80s) and Nasdaq (00s) and how remarkably similar they are. Seriously, the patterns are near identical. Look at the near uniformity of the initial declines as well…...

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The Conundrum that is Gold (To Bubble or Not to Bubble?)

The Conundrum that is Gold (To Bubble or Not to Bubble?)

Let’s continue to beat a dead horse. Is gold a bubble? If so, did the bubble run end in September 2011 when gold peaked around ~$1,900? We know that thus far, if gold was a bubble and the run ended…...

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Nasdaq is at a 12 Year High, What's it Mean in the Context of History?

Nasdaq is at a 12 Year High, What’s it Mean in the Context of History?

Last week the Nasdaq closed at 3,194. This marked a 12 year high. The index hadn’t notched a 12 year high in 674 weeks, or nearly 13 years. What’s that mean in the context of history? Well, because the Nasdaq…...

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Nasdaq Clearing 12-Year Resistance; Time to Pay Attention to Names/Themes That Worked in the Late 90s Again?

A little over a week ago on September 10th,  before Fed day last Thursday, we noted that it appeared the Nasdaq was finally clearing its 50% Fib retracement level off the 2000/2002 highs/lows, something it hadn’t been able to do for…...

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