Textbook Semi Reversal

Textbook Semi Reversal

We’ve written extensively in the past 18 months about the bullish case for owning and over-weighting semiconductor stocks. Our last semi-specific piece was from March of this year.  In it, we noted that the group had experienced a major relative…...

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Relativity Review

Relativity Review

Let’s do a review of some industries and their relative positions vs. the broader market (SPX) to see if we can find any interesting set-ups. I have a personal predilection toward these types of reviews as they’re often one of…...

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Angelic (Part 2)

Angelic (Part 2)

In March-15 when the stock was at ~$15.50 we highlighted HALO, a bio-tech company, in this post. Our interest in the name was entirely attributable to its very unique and favorable-looking ascending triangle pattern, which had been developing since 2004…....

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Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

An analysis of nearly 100 years of history compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...

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Macro Round-Up

Macro Round-Up

Let’s start with FX as it’s ultimately the most important driver when it comes to major inflection points and cycles in global macro. Here, as I noted in early August, the USD (via the DXY Index) continues to appear as if…...

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Retailers: Finally Oversold?

Retailers: Finally Oversold?

The ratio of the DJ Apparel Retailer Index vs. SPX has declined 39% off its 2015 highs as of last week. In doing so the ratio has fallen to historical trend-line support formed off other major pivot lows from 1997,…...

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Multiple Years of USD Work Suggests Another Secular Peak in Place

Multiple Years of USD Work Suggests Another Secular Peak in Place

Back in March-2015 we highlighted the chart below when the USD was approaching ~100 and noted that at this price level the currency was nearing major long-term resistance line (1) and that it had spent very little time above that resistance…...

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Despite the Massive Rally Since 2012 Is the Airline Secular Bear Just Now Ending?

Despite the Massive Rally Since 2012 Is the Airline Secular Bear Just Now Ending?

Per the break above line (1) in the chart below, airlines as a group (via the SPX Airlines Index) have now cleared a 26-year resistance line dating back to the early 1990s. We highlighted this developing set-up in early June…...

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Exiting the Tarmac, In Que on the Runway

Exiting the Tarmac, In Que on the Runway

Not to victory-lap this too much, but I think I managed to call the end of the airline secular bear and its likely transition into a secular bull well before nearly anybody else did publicly and certainly before it was a…...

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Semi Rally Now Faces Relative Resistance

Semi Rally Now Faces Relative Resistance

I began advocating semi longs and over-weights beginning in June of last year. Since then and after breaking out from the long-term flag pattern b/t lines (1) and (2), the ratio of the SOX vs. SPX is up ~26%, all…...

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