Macro Round-Up

Macro Round-Up

Let’s start with FX as it’s ultimately the most important driver when it comes to major inflection points and cycles in global macro. Here, as I noted in early August, the USD (via the DXY Index) continues to appear as if…...

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Retailers: Finally Oversold?

Retailers: Finally Oversold?

The ratio of the DJ Apparel Retailer Index vs. SPX has declined 39% off its 2015 highs as of last week. In doing so the ratio has fallen to historical trend-line support formed off other major pivot lows from 1997,…...

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Multiple Years of USD Work Suggests Another Secular Peak in Place

Multiple Years of USD Work Suggests Another Secular Peak in Place

Back in March-2015 we highlighted the chart below when the USD was approaching ~100 and noted that at this price level the currency was nearing major long-term resistance line (1) and that it had spent very little time above that resistance…...

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Despite the Massive Rally Since 2012 Is the Airline Secular Bear Just Now Ending?

Despite the Massive Rally Since 2012 Is the Airline Secular Bear Just Now Ending?

Per the break above line (1) in the chart below, airlines as a group (via the SPX Airlines Index) have now cleared a 26-year resistance line dating back to the early 1990s. We highlighted this developing set-up in early June…...

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Exiting the Tarmac, In Que on the Runway

Exiting the Tarmac, In Que on the Runway

Not to victory-lap this too much, but I think I managed to call the end of the airline secular bear and its likely transition into a secular bull well before nearly anybody else did publicly and certainly before it was a…...

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Semi Rally Now Faces Relative Resistance

Semi Rally Now Faces Relative Resistance

I began advocating semi longs and over-weights beginning in June of last year. Since then and after breaking out from the long-term flag pattern b/t lines (1) and (2), the ratio of the SOX vs. SPX is up ~26%, all…...

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Semis: Still More Room to Run

Semis: Still More Room to Run

On 7/11/16 we outlined the case for a material and sustained upside move in semis, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the broader market. We followed up that initial post with an update to the thesis on 8/10/16,…...

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See What Sticks

See What Sticks

I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start.  When discussed…...

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Expedited Upside?

Expedited Upside?

Subsequent to our semi-out-performance long thesis outlined earlier this year – which has worked spectacularly I might add – there has been a dearth of appealing-looking industry related charts when considering them on a relative ratio basis vs. the SPX. …...

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As an Industry, Info Tech's Size Reaches Historically High Levels

As an Industry, Info Tech’s Size Reaches Historically High Levels

In the chart below I plot the relative weightings of various SPX industry groups as a % of the entire index’s market cap over time. Right now, Info Tech constitutes nearly 22% of total SPX market cap. This was roughly…...

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