Semis: Still More Room to Run

Semis: Still More Room to Run

On 7/11/16 we outlined the case for a material and sustained upside move in semis, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the broader market. We followed up that initial post with an update to the thesis on 8/10/16,…...

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See What Sticks

See What Sticks

I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start.  When discussed…...

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Expedited Upside?

Expedited Upside?

Subsequent to our semi-out-performance long thesis outlined earlier this year – which has worked spectacularly I might add – there has been a dearth of appealing-looking industry related charts when considering them on a relative ratio basis vs. the SPX. …...

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As an Industry, Info Tech's Size Reaches Historically High Levels

As an Industry, Info Tech’s Size Reaches Historically High Levels

In the chart below I plot the relative weightings of various SPX industry groups as a % of the entire index’s market cap over time. Right now, Info Tech constitutes nearly 22% of total SPX market cap. This was roughly…...

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Energy Commodities: The Juice Is Likely Worth the Squeeze

Energy Commodities: The Juice Is Likely Worth the Squeeze

Per some emails at the end of Sep that highlighted the increased potential for such a move, crude has decisively broken above multi-year resistance recently.  If you believe the WH/Fed/Russia feed-back loop theory – as I do – it’s not…...

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Press Long Semi Bets

Press Long Semi Bets

A month ago we put together a semiconductor-related post that highlighted the likelihood of the group vastly out-performing the broader market. Since then both the SMH ETF and the SOX Index are up ~10% vs. the SPX.  Not a bad relative…

Similar to Semis, Tech In General Now Staging a Significant Long-Term Relative Strength Break-Out

Similar to Semis, Tech In General Now Staging a Significant Long-Term Relative Strength Break-Out

In the chart below I plot the ratio of the DJ Tech Index vs. SPX. For 15 years it’s been stuck in a flag/consolidation pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). No more. As of this week it is breaking out…...

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Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX

Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX

In the chart below I plot the SMH semiconductor ETF vs. SPY on a monthly closing basis. Note that it is breaking above line (1) and (2) resistance; line (1) dates back ~16 years and line (2) a decade.  This…...

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Is that Something You Might Be Interested In?

Is that Something You Might Be Interested In?

Any former Entourage fan (we’re talking “deep cuts” fan) will remember the character of Bob Ryan, aka “What if I was to tell you…is that something you might be interested in?” Bob Ryan. For the unacquainted, Bob was best known…...

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Heightened Prospects of a Material Single-Day Plunge in Gold

Heightened Prospects of a Material Single-Day Plunge in Gold

In a recent post on gold we highlighted its generally bullish position with respect to our historical framework but added the caveat that it faced a significant near-term test – i.e., the 1993 analog comparison which showed how it had traded…...

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