![Gold Miner Secular Bull Thesis Update: Major Upside Yet to Come](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-09-23-Gold-Miner-Secular-Bull-Analog-2018-vs.-Avg-ex-1932-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Gold Miner Secular Bull Thesis Update: Major Upside Yet to Come
I haven’t written about gold miners since Mar-2019. I also haven’t updated a post from Oct-2018 that attempted to frame how a gold miners bull market might look if their low in that period was “structural” in nature. In that…...
![Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2019-07-24-DJI-1929-1966-vs.-SOX-2000-Current-Monthly-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels
In late December 2013 I penned a piece titled “Semis On Deck”. In fairly detailed manner I explained why I thought semis were about to begin a material and sustained out-performance run vs. the broader market, a thesis I initially roughed out in…...
![Food Retail on the Cusp of a Major, Long-Term Relative Break-Out](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/2019-06-12-Ratio-DJ-Food-Retail-Wholesale-vs.-SPX-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Food Retail on the Cusp of a Major, Long-Term Relative Break-Out
Below I plot a long-term chart depicting the ratio of the DJ Food Retail & Wholesale Index vs. SPX on a monthly basis. You’ll note that with a few weeks left in June, we appear to be staging a major…...
![Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2019-04-23-Ratio-SOX-vs.-SPX-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX
After failing here multiple times in 2017-2018, the ratio of the $SOX vs. $SPX has cleared key historical swing resistance vs. the $SPX dating back to the 1990s in recent weeks. Perhaps the ratio is overbought and in need of…...
![Basic Material Depression](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2019-04-12-FTSE-Basic-Materials-Index-10-Yr-RoC-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Basic Material Depression
Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Basic Materials Index (longer history than SPX Basic Materials Index). Its worst print in 2018 as it lapped the 2008 global commodity high was -63%. That was the third-worst secular print…...
![Mustang Sally](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2019-04-10-Ratio-F-vs.-SPX-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Mustang Sally
Below I plot the long-term ratio of F vs. the SPX. It sits at 70-yr support dating back to late 1957! Support was last touched in late 1981 and was briefly and sharply breached during the 2008-2009 GFC,when many auto…...
![Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2019-04-09-Ratio-Nasdaq-vs.-SPX-Secular-Bull-Markets-Analog-Monthly-1.png?resize=150%2C150)
Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom
With a recent piece in Bloomberg highlighting the Nasdaq’s post-4Q18 out-performance resurgence, I thought I’d revisit the topic. Recall that back in Jul-2018 I noted that the Nasdaq’s run of out-performance vs. the SPX was nearing its longest/largest duration/magnitude in history. In retrospect,…...
![17 Years of Biotech Outperforming Pharma Coming to an End?](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-03-25-Ratio-PPH-vs.-IBB-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
17 Years of Biotech Outperforming Pharma Coming to an End?
Below I plot a simple chart – the ratio of the PPH pharma ETF vs. the IBB biotech ETF. After multiple failed break-outs over the past nearly two decades, you’ll see the ratio breaking above 17-yr downtrend resistance line (1)…
![Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-03-15-DJI-1920s-1950s-vs.-SOX-2000-Current-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?
Had a repeat of 1937 been on tap, the market would have followed through on last week’s ~300 bps decline with further weakness. It didn’t and instead, rebounded strongly. So, back to the drawing board. As you are well aware, I…...
![Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-03-05-Ratio-Gold-vs.-Silver-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support
Below, the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index sits atop nearly 85-yr support dating back to the early 1930s, specifically 1933. Even more specifically, the support begins in Apr-May-1933. This is what happened in Apr-May-1933. Support was last touched in late…...