Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Below I plot the 2-yr RoC in the ratio of SPX Consumer Staples vs. the SPX itself dating back to the 1920s. The current –29% is essentially the second-worst print in history, tied with the 1929-1930 period preceding and in…...

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Additional Evidence Suggesting a Historic Top in Place for Defense Stocks

Additional Evidence Suggesting a Historic Top in Place for Defense Stocks

In March I began making the case that defense stocks were in the process of putting an important top in place, which you can read about here. However, at that time I don’t think I fully appreciated the exact nature…...

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Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...

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Commodity Secular Bears: A Century's Worth of Historical Perspective

Commodity Secular Bears: A Century’s Worth of Historical Perspective

It’s Apr-18.  That means we’re at the 7-yr anniversary of the global commodity super-cycle peak of 2011.  This offers a neat and convenient time-based milestone upon which to assess the unrelenting carnage in the group since that peak and how it…...

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Oilfield Services Attractive on Numerous Relative Fronts

Oilfield Services Attractive on Numerous Relative Fronts

One could spend a few hours cycling through charts of various US equity industries, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the SPX, and find very little to get excited about. They simply all look the same – nearly…...

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Revisiting the Defense Industry as the First-Ever Audit of the DoD Commences

Revisiting the Defense Industry as the First-Ever Audit of the DoD Commences

All the way back in this Oct-12 post I highlighted the defense industry and a few of its individual components, noting what I thought were theire overall bullish positioning vs. the broader market after a decent stretch of under-performance. Below I…...

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Textbook Semi Reversal

Textbook Semi Reversal

We’ve written extensively in the past 18 months about the bullish case for owning and over-weighting semiconductor stocks. Our last semi-specific piece was from March of this year.  In it, we noted that the group had experienced a major relative…...

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Relativity Review

Relativity Review

Let’s do a review of some industries and their relative positions vs. the broader market (SPX) to see if we can find any interesting set-ups. I have a personal predilection toward these types of reviews as they’re often one of…...

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Angelic (Part 2)

Angelic (Part 2)

In March-15 when the stock was at ~$15.50 we highlighted HALO, a bio-tech company, in this post. Our interest in the name was entirely attributable to its very unique and favorable-looking ascending triangle pattern, which had been developing since 2004…....

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Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

An analysis of nearly 100 years of history compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...

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