Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002.  Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...

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Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Oil Equipment & Services Index along with the index itself.  A decade is a logical period for look-back analysis and doubles as the anniversary of crude’s 2008 all-time high print of ~$145.  I’ve…...

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Crude: 1980-1990...2008-2018

Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018

Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold.  Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...

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Relative Industry & Associated Constituent Set-Ups

Relative Industry & Associated Constituent Set-Ups

In the context of “needing” equity exposure, I present below a handful of relative industry set-ups that I find technically interesting.  To reiterate, these are relative, not absolute industry out-performance ideas.  In the event of major equity downside, consider them…

Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Below I plot the 2-yr RoC in the ratio of SPX Consumer Staples vs. the SPX itself dating back to the 1920s. The current –29% is essentially the second-worst print in history, tied with the 1929-1930 period preceding and in…...

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Additional Evidence Suggesting a Historic Top in Place for Defense Stocks

Additional Evidence Suggesting a Historic Top in Place for Defense Stocks

In March I began making the case that defense stocks were in the process of putting an important top in place, which you can read about here. However, at that time I don’t think I fully appreciated the exact nature…...

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Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...

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Commodity Secular Bears: A Century's Worth of Historical Perspective

Commodity Secular Bears: A Century’s Worth of Historical Perspective

It’s Apr-18.  That means we’re at the 7-yr anniversary of the global commodity super-cycle peak of 2011.  This offers a neat and convenient time-based milestone upon which to assess the unrelenting carnage in the group since that peak and how it…...

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Oilfield Services Attractive on Numerous Relative Fronts

Oilfield Services Attractive on Numerous Relative Fronts

One could spend a few hours cycling through charts of various US equity industries, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the SPX, and find very little to get excited about. They simply all look the same – nearly…...

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Revisiting the Defense Industry as the First-Ever Audit of the DoD Commences

Revisiting the Defense Industry as the First-Ever Audit of the DoD Commences

All the way back in this Oct-12 post I highlighted the defense industry and a few of its individual components, noting what I thought were theire overall bullish positioning vs. the broader market after a decent stretch of under-performance. Below I…...

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