Basic Material Depression
Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Basic Materials Index (longer history than SPX Basic Materials Index). Its worst print in 2018 as it lapped the 2008 global commodity high was -63%. That was the third-worst secular print…...
Large AUDNZD Rally to Occur
This is a random FX post – which I don’t do often – but I think it’s high probability and big enough in its potential P&L impact that it’s worth posting. Below, note the AUDNZD pair is testing a break-out…...
Long Pairs vs. NZD
On January 29th the Reserve Bank of New Zealand appeared to signal an aggressive shift away from future rate increases, citing a somewhat more uncertain outlook for global growth and inflation being sustained below the low end of their target…...
Working Thesis for 2015
It’s that time again. Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year. If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”. By…...
Ratio of Yen vs. AUD Breaking 23-Year Support That’s Been in Place Since the Nikkei’s All-Time 1989 Highs
In the chart below the ratio of the Yen vs. AUD is breaking 23-year support at the inset. This support has been in place since early 1990 immediately succeeding the Nikkei’s all-time highs in December 1989. So, one has to…
Aussie $ Appears to be Fading at Important Test of Resistance
Chart below is of the Aussie $. In May it broke down from a long-term, bearish ascending wedge pattern formed by lines (1) and (2). Line (1) ran across its highs from 1995 onward while line (2) ran underneath its…