Which One has the Correct Macro View?
Bonds or stocks? One of these is going to have egg on its face when this is all over. Longer-term, the 10 Yr UST is suggesting the fair value on the SPX is < 700. Is the 10 Yr UST correct or is…...
Was 2011 the “Real” Top? / The Power of Monetary Stimulus
Can they keep the ball in the air? That’s the question in the back of the head of any bear. Not to be overly dramatic, but nearly every economic and monetary force in the world is aligned against bearish risk…...
1973/1974 the Closest Parallels to 2012/2013?
Before we can even consider this question one needs to have a heart-to-heart with themselves on one major issue… Do you believe domestic equities are still in a secular bear market? If you do, continue on. If not, there’s going…...
Price Action on R2K Suggests Path of Least Resistance Down
Prices are all that matter. And as far as the R2K is concerned, price action in recent history has been anything but bullish. This view is largely expressed through the slope of the index’s 12 month moving average (MA). I…...
Much Maligned Airlines About to Sustainably Outperform?
As of this week, the USD is breaking trend-line resistance dating back to the early part of the last decade at line (1) below. Ostensibly, this represents a trend change of some proportion – bull market beginnings, bear market endings. The…...
This Ratio Suggests a Major SPX Top Already in Place & 10 Yr UST Price Breaking Multi-Decade Resistance
The ratio b/t the 10 Yr UST price and SPX has been enormously valuable in calling cycle or temporary cyclical tops in the latter since 2007. In fact, the ratio successfully called the 2007 cycle top and the numerous 2011 cyclical tops…...
Who’s Who of Poor Places to be Long Over Past 12 Years
Filtered for the existence of all of the following at any given time dating back to the late 90s: VIX b/t 18.5-25.5 VIX one month RoC > 20% SPX one month RoC < -5% SPX one year RoC < 0%…...