Getting Granular – RSI on SPY 60 Min Chart Reaching Extreme Levels Seen Only 4x in Past Year

The RSI on the 60 min SPY chart has only been this elevated, whether it be euphoria or something else, 4x over the past year. Once was in early July 2011 when Greece managed to secure a release of bailout…...

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Based on the Average Historical Outcome, this Very Reliable Indicator Suggests SPX ~1,550 by October

On October 3, 2011 when the SPX closed at 1,100, investors in the Rydex family of funds had nearly $1.60 invested in money market fund vehicles for every $1.00 invested in long or sector-based equity mutual funds. In effect, cash balances…...

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Does Volatility Tell us anything about the Potential for a Sustained Move Higher?

If history holds, YES!  And that probability is reasonably high. If the market meets certain qualifications today (most importantly, if the VIX closes < 17.8 and one other item) our proprietary “fear” and volatility-based market timing tool will have provided its first…...

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Potential for Longer-Term Dollar Rally Could Cause Small Caps to Under-Perform

Potential for Longer-Term Dollar Rally Could Cause Small Caps to Under-Perform

In the chart below the ratio of the R2K vs. SPX is presented in black. As the line increases small caps outperform large caps and vice versa. This ratio is plotted against the USD in red, which is inverted. Together,…...

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Which One has the Correct Macro View?

Bonds or stocks? One of these is going to have egg on its face when this is all over. Longer-term, the 10 Yr UST is suggesting the fair value on the SPX is < 700. Is the 10 Yr UST correct or is…...

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Was 2011 the “Real” Top? / The Power of Monetary Stimulus

Can they keep the ball in the air? That’s the question in the back of the head of any bear. Not to be overly dramatic, but nearly every economic and monetary force in the world is aligned against bearish risk…...

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1973/1974 the Closest Parallels to 2012/2013?

Before we can even consider this question one needs to have a heart-to-heart with themselves on one major issue… Do you believe domestic equities are still in a secular bear market? If you do, continue on.  If not, there’s going…...

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Price Action on R2K Suggests Path of Least Resistance Down

Prices are all that matter. And as far as the R2K is concerned, price action in recent history has been anything but bullish. This view is largely expressed through the slope of the index’s 12 month moving average (MA). I…...

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Much Maligned Airlines About to Sustainably Outperform?

As of this week, the USD is breaking trend-line resistance dating back to the early part of the last decade at line (1) below.  Ostensibly, this represents a trend change of some proportion – bull market beginnings, bear market endings. The…...

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This Ratio Suggests a Major SPX Top Already in Place & 10 Yr UST Price Breaking Multi-Decade Resistance

The ratio b/t the 10 Yr UST price and SPX has been enormously valuable in calling cycle or temporary cyclical tops in the  latter since 2007. In fact, the ratio successfully called the 2007 cycle top and the numerous 2011 cyclical tops…...

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