Outcomes for Equities Here & Contingency Planning for Each Potential Set-Up
I think there are two potential outcomes here: 1) Per the first chart below – the SPX daily – there’s a chance that the move off the late May / early June lows of ~1,280 and the choppy consolidation that then…...
How the Use of An Analog Would Have Had you Long at SPX 1,075 on 10/3/11
The chart below analogs the periods of July 1986-December 1987 and July 2010-October 2011. Without going into the additional historical statistical details of how one would triangulate or back into 1,075 as “the” point bottom to buy on 10/3/11, the…...
SPX Creating an Incredibly Bearish Wick at Important Resistance
If today’s losses hold through tomorrow (a BIG if), the SPX weekly chart will look like it does below (or worse). In that chart you can see the SPX has put up an incredibly bearish looking wick at important resistance…....
Did April Witness Another Failure at the SPX’s Most Important Technical Line in the Sand Dating Back to the 80s?
I find technicals so inherently valuable because they offer such clear parameters for identifying where something has changed (or not). They offer great lines in the sand in terms of facilitating improved exeuction – long here / short here. So,…...
Yen Finally a Short Candidate? Nikkei Finally Going to Outperform?
The Yen sits at multi-decade highs against the USD. The ratio of the DJ Global Index vs. the Nikkei the same (i.e., the former has outperformed the latter for quite some time). Interestingly though, the Yen recently broke below trend-line…...
Ratio of 10 Yr vs. 30 Yr UST Price at an Important Juncture for Future Direction of Equities
The attached shows that the ratio of the 10 Yr vs. 30 Yr UST price is hitting trend-line support that has been in place since 1986. The first point to make is that it is typically at this line where 10…...
Getting Granular – RSI on SPY 60 Min Chart Reaching Extreme Levels Seen Only 4x in Past Year
The RSI on the 60 min SPY chart has only been this elevated, whether it be euphoria or something else, 4x over the past year. Once was in early July 2011 when Greece managed to secure a release of bailout…...
Based on the Average Historical Outcome, this Very Reliable Indicator Suggests SPX ~1,550 by October
On October 3, 2011 when the SPX closed at 1,100, investors in the Rydex family of funds had nearly $1.60 invested in money market fund vehicles for every $1.00 invested in long or sector-based equity mutual funds. In effect, cash balances…...
Does Volatility Tell us anything about the Potential for a Sustained Move Higher?
If history holds, YES! And that probability is reasonably high. If the market meets certain qualifications today (most importantly, if the VIX closes < 17.8 and one other item) our proprietary “fear” and volatility-based market timing tool will have provided its first…...
Potential for Longer-Term Dollar Rally Could Cause Small Caps to Under-Perform
In the chart below the ratio of the R2K vs. SPX is presented in black. As the line increases small caps outperform large caps and vice versa. This ratio is plotted against the USD in red, which is inverted. Together,…...