Repeating Fundamental & Technical Patterns in India/Bombay Sensex Suggesting a New Up Leg in EM Secular Growth Phase?
Coming into 2012 we figured the year would be up or down big given we had just finished a third straight up year in what was ostensibly a secular bear market, which had happened only one other time in 100…...
SPX about to Bottom and Rally Sustainably?
According to SentimenTrader even though the SPX was down for a fifth straight day yesterday the VIX was only up ~7.7% over the same period. Dating back to 1990 when the SPX is down for five straight days and the…...
NYSE 52 Week Lows Once Again at Levels that Have Coincided with SPX Pull-Backs Over Past Year+
On 6/27 we noted that new 52 week lows on the NYSE had been trending higher over the past year even as the SPX was flat to up. We also noted that if history held, it was likely not the…
Downside in SSEC Continues to Accelerate; Breakdown from Pennant Pattern at Hand
Last night the Shanghai Composite (SSEC) shed nearly 240 bps on the back of various Chinese macro data points. This comes on the heels of other recent weakness in the SSEC – on 6/25 we noted that the index had witnessed two straight…
Any Clues Provided by the USD’s Large Losses Today?
As of right now the USD is down ~110 bps on the day. Since March 2009 there have been 33 other occurrences of single-day USD declines of at least 100 bps. The last instance dates all the way back to…...
Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Suggesting Anything about Global Risks, Future Path of Equities?
We’ve spent a lot of time recently pointing out how many different price-based indicators are sitting at extremes. The ratio of copper vs. gold, a barometer of sorts for global economic activity/fear levels/risk appetite, is no different. In the chart…...
Taking a Quick Dive into Market Internals
Attached is a chart that compares new 52 week lows on the NYSE against the SPX over the past year+. A couple of points that should stand out immediately: 1) New 52 week lows continue to trend higher even as…...
Revisiting the R2K – If History is Correct, Downside Risks Remain Elevated over Intermediate-Term
On 5/31/12 we ran a post on the R2K that suggested, based on its current price structure and momentum in the context of history, the path of least resistance for the index was lower, not higher, over the intermediate term…....
Bio-Techs, a Leadership Group, Face Stiff Resistance (Same Resistance Faced at top of SPX Bear Market Retracement Rallies in 2001/2008)
Below is a table (via Finviz.com) that details YTD industry performance – biotech has been a standout YTD, up 22% and in 11th place out of all industries. That said, in the chart below the group’s YTD rally, via the DJ…...
Downside Accelerating in the Shanghai Composite; About to Break Down Technically?
In its last two trading sessions the Shanghai Composite has shed 140 and 160 bps, respectively. At the same time the index sits on trend-line (1) support dating back to 2006 within the context of a broader pennant/flag consolidation pattern…...