Multi-Decade Break-outs in Gold vs. Various Industrial Commodities Signals Major Monetary System Change Afoot
Proportional end demand by the industrial sector is exceedingly larger for crude (all), copper (all) and silver (~50%) vs. gold (~10%-15%). Keep the above in mind when looking at the three charts below which plot ratios of gold vs. all three aforementioned…...
USDRUB Breaks out of 18 Year Channel to the Upside (The Loss of Fed Independence)
In the chart below at (A) USDRUB has broken out of a ~18-year channel b/t lines (1) resistance and (2) support to the upside. Every major swing high and low for the pair has come on these respective channel lines over…...
TED Spreads Lead & The Real Driver Behind The Fed’s Decision to Hike Rates
I’ve written a good deal this week about TED spreads blowing out significantly recently. Today I wanted to look at snapshots of the last few times TED spreads have blown out like they are now to see how the equity…...
War Machine
Somebody is going to have to fire up the war machine to prevent deflation (crude) from accelerating (declining) in the near-term. Absent that, dramatic, near-term cuts in global oil output are needed. Per the below, the Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s main…...
Potential Cyclical High In Place for SPX Relative to Crude
The chart below shows the long-term ratio of the SPX vs. crude. The pattern is well-defined in that it develops a large left shoulder over the course of 1985-1997 (SPX out-performance), followed by a distinct head from 1997-2000 (acceleration of…...
1998 Redux for Crude?
In these two posts here and here we discussed 1998 as a potential outcome to Aug/Sep’s global VOL in equities whereby strong pivots higher could result in additional, sustained upside to the long-term bull cycle that’s been intact since 2009 (or…...
CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign
The relationship b/t the USD and CNH increasingly appears to be the single most important global macro input factor. USD’s relevance has always been well appreciated but the closer I examine it v-a-v CNH, and China in general, the more significant…...
Commodities/EMs Likely Near a Bottom
The operative word here is near. In the chart below the CRB Index is fast approaching long-term support on a monthly basis. Support dates back to the 1999 and 2002 lows for commodities. In addition, the ratio of crude vs. gold…...
Crude’s Technicals Point To Additional Downside
In the chart below I present crude on a monthly HLC and closing basis. Note that as of August crude has broken back into a long-term, upward sloping channel formed by line (1) and (2). This development is incredibly important…...
Global Macro & Cycle Round-Up
Last week we highlighted the USD and the critical long-term swing resistance it was pressing against. As it turns out, the USD blew past that resistance later in the week, per the chart below. In that chart, note that said…...