CCI & DXY

CCI & DXY

Fred Bergsten is an economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington,DC think-tank. He’s a huge proponent, and has been for some time, of the US announcing a policy of countervailing currency intervention (CCI).  He…...

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Gold/Silver Ratio - Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver.  August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing.  It shows that the bear cycle…...

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Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...

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Gold/Silver Ratio Very Close to Clearing Nearly 30 Years of Down-Trend Resistance

Gold/Silver Ratio Very Close to Clearing Nearly 30 Years of Down-Trend Resistance

In the chart below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver on a monthly basis, a thematic I highlighted in this recent post. Since the ratio peaked in 1991 it’s secular impulse has been one of incessant weakness-to-sideways action amid…...

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Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s

Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s

In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad.  Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...

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SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because actual price appreciation during this nine year stretch was virtually 0%…...

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Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002.  Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...

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Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...

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Second Stage of Bitcoin Crash Sequence To Begin Very Soon

Second Stage of Bitcoin Crash Sequence To Begin Very Soon

Below I plot a daily chart of silver that depicts the various steps of its crash sequence after peaking in 2011 at $50. In the aggregate, the crash sequence takes place inside an obvious and bearish descending triangle.  Once it finally…...

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Saudi Arabia Faces 13-Yr Falling Resistance

Saudi Arabia Faces 13-Yr Falling Resistance

Below I plot the Tadawul Index – Saudi Arabia’s main equity index. Note that it has rallied up to test falling resistance off its 2006 and 2014 swing highs and that the former occurred 623 weeks ago. One of the…