Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?
The Nikkei’s prominent Mar-Nov-12 peak and subsequent corrective/consolidation (A) looks an awful lot like the the recent Jan-18-current version (B), which I compare in the chart below. Via the analog, note the similarities b/t the respective periods’ corrections and consolidations. Also note…...
Daily DXY Analog
DXY presented off its Apr-71 and Dec-16 swing highs, but on a daily basis, not weekly as I’ve always shown before. This provides some added granularity. If accurate, the first wave of serious selling begins now and finishes up around…...
CCI & DXY
Fred Bergsten is an economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington,DC think-tank. He’s a huge proponent, and has been for some time, of the US announcing a policy of countervailing currency intervention (CCI). He…...
Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications
Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver. August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing. It shows that the bear cycle…...
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)
Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...
Gold/Silver Ratio Very Close to Clearing Nearly 30 Years of Down-Trend Resistance
In the chart below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver on a monthly basis, a thematic I highlighted in this recent post. Since the ratio peaked in 1991 it’s secular impulse has been one of incessant weakness-to-sideways action amid…...
Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s
In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad. Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...
SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018
2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because actual price appreciation during this nine year stretch was virtually 0%…...
Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History
The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002. Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...
Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event
In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...