Second Stage of Bitcoin Crash Sequence To Begin Very Soon
Below I plot a daily chart of silver that depicts the various steps of its crash sequence after peaking in 2011 at $50. In the aggregate, the crash sequence takes place inside an obvious and bearish descending triangle. Once it finally…...
Saudi Arabia Faces 13-Yr Falling Resistance
Below I plot the Tadawul Index – Saudi Arabia’s main equity index. Note that it has rallied up to test falling resistance off its 2006 and 2014 swing highs and that the former occurred 623 weeks ago. One of the…
Incorporating Tactical Precision into our Big-Picture Silver Work
I’ve recently written extensively about why I believe silver is poised for a window of out-sized upside this year, if even it comes in a brief window of time like 1987’s 65% rally, which occurred in two months. This thesis is largely…
Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely
In late Dec-17 I outlined a case for the Nikkei reaching 40K during 2018 in this post. As ridiculous as that sounded at the time, I thought the analytical justification was sound. Generally, the Nikkei’s path from 1989-Dec-17 was highly analogous…...
Additional Evidence Suggesting a Historic Top in Place for Defense Stocks
In March I began making the case that defense stocks were in the process of putting an important top in place, which you can read about here. However, at that time I don’t think I fully appreciated the exact nature…...
Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place
Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...
Commodity Secular Bears: A Century’s Worth of Historical Perspective
It’s Apr-18. That means we’re at the 7-yr anniversary of the global commodity super-cycle peak of 2011. This offers a neat and convenient time-based milestone upon which to assess the unrelenting carnage in the group since that peak and how it…...
Growing Dossier of Bullish Silver Analytics
In recent weeks I’ve begun to note the historically tight hi/lo price ranges within the PM complex, first noting both gold and silver’s compressed 48-mo ranges here, and then silver’s 12 mo range here. Historically speaking, such compression has been indicative…...
Pinpointing a Bottom in Bitcoin
With my oft-repeated suggestion that XBT will reach $1 million in 2018 looking more comical by the day, I thought it appropriate to revisit the asset with a focus not on trying to predict upside, but on attempting to pinpoint a near-term…...
Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?
Our mid-cycle pause analog framework has served us exceedingly well for two years since its original construction in this March 2016 post. And while no framework will ever be perfect, its accuracy has nonetheless been exceptional in divining the future over…...