Last Buyable Correction into the Final Run?
I’d like to use this post to analyze the current ~10% correction in US equities in the context of our mid-cycle pause analog. As that framework goes, I’m not entirely surprised the correction is occurring here and now. I’m not…...
EM Equities: 2007’s Secular High In Sight
I last updated our ongoing secular bear market analog framework for EM equities ~four months ago in this “Macro Round-Up” post, but as a refresher, first introduced it in this Jan-17 post. There were five central conclusions outlined in the original piece: EM began…...
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update: First Signs of Euphoria?
Since I last updated my big-picture, mid-cycle pause analog framework for assessing US equities in mid-October in this post, optimism about Trump’s tax plan and its ability to successfully sail through Congress has mounted. Tax-related optimism has begun to infect…...
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update
It’s been nearly three months since I last updated my big-picture US equity cycle analogs. Let’s take the time to refresh them now. Here’s our mid-cycle pause analog. Price continues to track closely to our historical comparisons, albeit below the “average” levels they imply…...
Large AUDNZD Rally to Occur
This is a random FX post – which I don’t do often – but I think it’s high probability and big enough in its potential P&L impact that it’s worth posting. Below, note the AUDNZD pair is testing a break-out…...
Putting Bitcoin’s Recent Decline in Perspective
To the casual observer, Bitcoin (XBT) has been in crash mode over the past week or so, declining to ~$1,750 at its lows this morning from ~$2,500 at the start of the week, a 30% decline in a few days…....
Big Picture Update
Our highest conviction thematics within our big picture thinking remain the following: US equities: mid-cycle pause framework EU equities: major periphery rally underway, per N225 (2012) and SHCOMP (2014) set-ups EM equities: large cyclical rally underway up to 2007 highs…...
Accelerated Domestic Equity Upside (2013 Repeat?)
I generally try to avoid granular, shorter-term chart analysis, but I’m going to do just that in the one presented below because the analysis comes in the context of corroboratory evidence for a broader framework and thesis. Either way, note that…...
EU Analog Update
It’s been two months since we laid out our EU/Portugal analog framework for the first time and six weeks since we last updated it. It now looks as follows (using Portugal’s PSI20 Index; all analogs present the first year of…...
EMs Approaching Long-Term Resistance, What Next?
The MSCI EM Index (MXEF) is approaching historical resistance dating back to its 2007 highs on a monthly closing basis below. On a weekly closing basis the set-up is similar, though the index has some remaining upside left. In the…...