Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

An analysis of nearly 100 years of history compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...

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Heading into BREXIT 2.0, Is US Long Bond Analogous to GBP in 3Q92?

Heading into BREXIT 2.0, Is US Long Bond Analogous to GBP in 3Q92?

In a few recent posts I’ve highlighted that the discussions around BREXIT 2.0/ERM2 are occurring as the ratio of the Stoxx600 vs. SPX hits channel support for only the second time in history (on a monthly basis vs. three times on a daily)…....

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Looking for the Next Break in the Ongoing Chinese Depression

Looking for the Next Break in the Ongoing Chinese Depression

In late December we noted via this post that the SSEC’s crash off its mid-15 highs to-date was very similar-looking to the path the DJI took of its 1929 high to begin the Great Depression. Here’s an updated version of the analog comparing…...

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Under-Performance in Apparel/Clothing/Accessories Industry to Continue

Under-Performance in Apparel/Clothing/Accessories Industry to Continue

LULU cut guidance this morning and finds its stock down ~15% today.  This is hardly the extent of the pain this name has suffered though as it’s down 55% since its 2012/2013 peak of ~$80. All we have to say…...

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Random Short Opportunity of the Day

Random Short Opportunity of the Day

In the chart below CALD is breaking below line (1) support at the inset. The support line (1) in question that has broken has acted as a rising, multi-month shelf of sorts. Break-downs from similar technical set-ups have occurred regularly…...

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Spread Trade Idea in Global Equities

Spread Trade Idea in Global Equities

As you know, I’ve gotten structurally bearish over the past two weeks. Even if I’m wrong, I’m of the opinion that any U.S. equity upside is going to be more limited from current levels, likely no higher than Dow 16,250…...

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Anywhere from 15 to 33-Year Support Appears to Be Weakening for these Three Short Opportunities

Anywhere from 15 to 33-Year Support Appears to Be Weakening for these Three Short Opportunities

In the chart below RT, ADSK and PLCM sit atop 30, 33 and 15 year support lines. These stocks’ ability to bounce along each’s key long-term support lines in the charts appears to be getting weaker and weaker. As such,…...

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Time to Get Short-Term Bearish on the Nikkei?

Time to Get Short-Term Bearish on the Nikkei?

Color me ridiculous for putting up a post like this (it’s basically the inverse equivalent of a bullish post on a stock that’s down 90% and headed for BK that’s shown no abatement in downside), but whatever. The set-up in…...

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Look to Under-Weight and/or Find Shorts in This Industry

Look to Under-Weight and/or Find Shorts in This Industry

I don’t like the Clothing & Accessories industry. I believe it and its constituents are prone to serious downside risks over the intermediate-term and should be under-weighted, avoided all together or shorted. The chart below shows the ratio of the…...

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Opportunities in the Building Products & Construction Materials Space

Chart below plots the S&P Building Products Index. Remarkably, off its lows last October, the index is up ~145%. Now the index is approaching resistance line (1) dating back to 2007.  It’s also approaching resistance region (A) which dates back…...

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