Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

An analysis of¬†nearly 100 years of history¬†compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...

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Transports Have Put in a Major, Secular Peak vs. the Broader Market

Transports Have Put in a Major, Secular Peak vs. the Broader Market

In the chart below note that in late Dec-14 the ratio of the DJ Transportation Index vs. SPX hit ~4.40, a level that has historically been consistent with major, secular peaks. Historically, such peaks have resulted in Transports under-performing the…...

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Transports Have Had a Great Run Since September, Now What?

Transports Have Had a Great Run Since September, Now What?

I kind of dropped the ball on the Transports back in early October. In this post I highlighted the fact that I thought they’d continue to under-perform until the ratio of the DJ Transports vs. SPX fell to 3.2-3.3 vs…....

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Airlines Continue to Out-Perform the Broader Market but is the Pace Set to Accelerate?

Airlines Continue to Out-Perform the Broader Market but is the Pace Set to Accelerate?

The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. FAA (airline ETF). Note that this week the ratio is breaking below support line (1) and seemingly falling back into a channel whose bottom is defined by line (2). If…

When and Where Will Transports Likely Begin to Out-perform the Broader Market?

We’ve discussed the idea of avoiding the transports in the recent past. We’ve also noted how their recent under-performance (~-1,000 bps vs. SPX over past year) is not necessarily a warning sign for the broader market. With these ideas in…...

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Do Transports Always Have to Out-Perform to Confirm Overall Market Strength?

Do Transports Always Have to Out-Perform to Confirm Overall Market Strength?

Much has been made of the recent under-performance in the DJ Transportation Index vs. the broader market as of late. However, as the chart below details, there is no tablet carved in stone with the words “Transports must always out-perform…