CRB vs. USD Has Reached 40 Year Support, But Can it Hold?
On 12/17/15 in this post we highlighted this chart which showed that the ratio of the CRB Index vs. USD was fast approaching a 30-year support line. In reality, if we extended that support line left into the early 70s…...
TED Spreads Lead & The Real Driver Behind The Fed’s Decision to Hike Rates
I’ve written a good deal this week about TED spreads blowing out significantly recently. Today I wanted to look at snapshots of the last few times TED spreads have blown out like they are now to see how the equity…...
USD Peaking vs. Commodities, Gold Breaking Out vs. Commodities
In the chart below note the CRB Index, though well into its breach, at least appears to be bottoming on a relative basis vs. the USD, as the ratio b/t the two reaches ~30 year support. There’s a little bit…...
How & Why The Chinese Are Using Comex to Crush Paper Gold Prices While Simultaneously Laying the Groundwork for CNH to Become the World’s Next Reserve Currency
ZH has had much good commentary in recent months on the explosion in Comex open interest in gold (GC) relative to the amount of registered/deliverable physical held in related vaults, noting as recently as late NOV that the ratio had just…...
Potential Cyclical High In Place for SPX Relative to Crude
The chart below shows the long-term ratio of the SPX vs. crude. The pattern is well-defined in that it develops a large left shoulder over the course of 1985-1997 (SPX out-performance), followed by a distinct head from 1997-2000 (acceleration of…...
PMs Appear Green-Lit to Advance
In the chart below take note of the simple fact that the DXY index (USD) appears poised to break down from a consolidation/flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) through much of 2015 at inset (A) while at inset (B), it is…...
Global Macro & Cycle Round-Up
Last week we highlighted the USD and the critical long-term swing resistance it was pressing against. As it turns out, the USD blew past that resistance later in the week, per the chart below. In that chart, note that said…...
Major Long-Term Swing Resistance for USD
Is now at hand. What the USD does here will have major implications across all macro assets. Most notably, if it can break above, commodities likely continue to tumble and put in new cycle lows along with other sovereign currencies. Truth…...
Price Momentum in U.S. Equities is Coiled
In August 2013 we had a very simple pattern-recognition post on the USD that suggested price volatility on the currency index would expand in the near-term. The unique aspect of the post was that we our pattern assessment on the USD was being…...
Bond Prices Peaking, Yields Bottoming?
In the chart below you’ll find 30 year US treasury bond prices. For the past ~30 years those prices have traveled within an upward sloping channel as yields have continuously fallen, b/t lines (1) and (2). The recent plunge in…...