Working Thesis for 2015
It’s that time again. Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year. If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”. By…...
Yen/USD Cross Approaching Material Long-Term Resistance
In the chart below the Yen is reaching material long-term resistance at lines (1) and (2). In addition, its 61.8% Fib retracement level (3) formed off the 1998 highs / 2011 lows in the cross comes into play at the…...
PM/FX Crossroads
Fairly simple chart today with fairly straightforward conclusions. Below you’ll find that gold and the USD are at critical crossroads with the former/latter facing two-year resistance/support. The USDs chart is particularly intriguing to the extent that the support line in…...
Silver Update
On 9/16 we noted the USD was breaking 30 month support on the heels of Larry Summer’s announced withdrawal from the race to replace Bernanke. We suggested this could be a good, corroborative signal to our bullish, long-term silver thesis. As…...
USD Breaking Below 30 Month Support
The USD bottomed in April 2011; silver peaked at the same time at its decade-long high of $50. Since then the USD has been in an uptrend defined by line (1) support; silver has been in a downtrend defined by…...
Silver’s Current Decline in the Context of Our Longer-Term Thesis
Amazingly, given all the commentary we’ve had on silver via email and phone conversations, there hasn’t been an official updated post on the PM since April. Most, if not all of the reason for this, is the fact that my…...
USD Price Volatility Likely to Expand in Near-Term
The USD’s 52 week RoC is consolidating into a triangle that looks very close to ending, per the image on the right. Last Aug the USD closed at ~81.2 and ~80 in Sep, which puts your current and prospective 52…...
USD At a Critical Juncture
The USD remains at a critical juncture. Thus far, the bullish premonitions we had been calling for over the past year have failed to materialize. Instead, the USD has largely painted a sideways line. As it currently stands, the currency…...
USD Update
As we pointed out a few weeks ago, the USD continues to attempt a break-out of material long-term resistance. I continue to believe that the monthly USD charts are the best way to gleam informational content on the set-up in…...
The USD’s Next Likely Move is…?
In the chart below the USD is testing line (2) resistance. This line is important – the USD has spent all but three of the past 27 years below it, excluding 1999-2002. Moreover, the line has sent the USD retreating…...