USDJPY Testing 35-Year Resistance
Below we have weekly close and monthly HLC views of USDJPY. On each we find lines (1) and (2) resistance. Line (1) is 35-year resistance for USDJPY dating back to ~1978. Combined with line (2) which runs to ~200, the…...
Yen Has Reached Multi-Decade Support
In the monthly chart below the Japanese Yen has reached multi-decade support lines (1) and (2) after breaking down in the past two weeks from the bearish-looking flag/consolidation pattern we had recently highlighted in this post. Line (2) dates to…...
Consolidation of Important FX Cross Nearing Conclusion
We’ve discussed the prospects for and likelihood of Yen weakness going back to summer 2012 and our general belief here has been a simple one: so long as reflation is and remains the core pillar of Abenomics, so too must the…...
Japan Update
The BoJ releases its latest monetary policy decision/statement tonight. There has been recent chatter that the BoJ, or at least a small minority of its members, are growing uneasy about Yen weakness and the pressure that is putting on consumers purchasing…...
Working Thesis for 2015
It’s that time again. Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year. If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”. By…...
Critical Area for Yen/Nikkei
I have an ultra long-term monthly Yen chart (inverted) coupled with an equally short-term 60-min Nikkei chart below. The Yen, +/- a point or two, is basically at critical long-term support pointed out just recently. That support is the combo of l0ng-term lines…...
Yen/USD Cross Approaching Material Long-Term Resistance
In the chart below the Yen is reaching material long-term resistance at lines (1) and (2). In addition, its 61.8% Fib retracement level (3) formed off the 1998 highs / 2011 lows in the cross comes into play at the…...
Nikkei Granularity & Short-Termism
Don’t want to get too cute here because the last thing I want to do is to get excessively myopic about a few % correction from recent highs given the potential upside move to ~35k-45K I’ve been pontificating about for…...
Triggers to the Next Leg of the Nikkei Run
Last night Japan’s CPI printed +3.6% YoY in June, down from 3.7% YoY in the prior month, but holding steady at near 23 year highs per the chart below. This is key and core to our ongoing Japan/Nikkei thesis –…...
24-Year Support at Hand for This Ratio
The ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is at 24-year support line (1) below. Additionally, line (2) support is at hand. I would note that line (1) was not hit in May when the Nikkei peaked at 16K. Line (1)…...