Multi-Month Consolidation Patterns Set to End in these Macro Assets
The Japanese Yen is at an important juncture. We’ve been writing about this macro asset as far back as June 2012 and the likelihood that it was entering a period of sustained wekaness (and as a result, the Nikkei sustained strength)…....
Incremental Thoughts on the “Reach for Yield” Trade
This is an update to our post last week discussing the potential risks associated with the global investment community’s “reach for yield” if/when risk-free rates began to rise. In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Yen…...
Is the “Reach for Yield” Trade in Riskier Areas Going to Get Hurt by Rising Risk-Free Rates?
No matter where you turn you can read about the global “reach for yield” game that’s being played by investors, institutional and retail alike, as they attempt to generate income in riskier asset classes with “higher” yields to circumvent the…...
More Yen Downside or is 25% in Six Months Enough?
In the chart below the Yen appears to be breaking straight through critical 23.6% Fib retracement support (1985 lows / 1995 highs). This level, or ~1.00, is also parity level with the USD and a place of numerous important swing…...
Isn’t the USD Supposed to Drive PMs?
A few weeks back we plotted the Yen against various PMs in this post and suggested the latter had to “catch down” to the former given 1) they have tended to act as leading indicators for one another’s fair value, with…
Ratio of Yen vs. AUD Breaking 23-Year Support That’s Been in Place Since the Nikkei’s All-Time 1989 Highs
In the chart below the ratio of the Yen vs. AUD is breaking 23-year support at the inset. This support has been in place since early 1990 immediately succeeding the Nikkei’s all-time highs in December 1989. So, one has to…
Could Yen Weakness & Nikkei Strength Continue Unabated? If so, How Long and to What Degree?
No crappy editorials on how bad Japan’s economy is and debt this, inflation/deflation that, demographics him, GDP growth her… One chart. The ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei has traveled in this upward channel defined by lines (1) and (2)…...
Is it Too Late to Short the Yen?
Not in my mind. My earlier post today on the Nikkei/Yen showed that their current respective 26 week RoC is as positive/negative (most upper-left) as it’s ever been. As I pointed out, the only time in history where the scatter-plot…...
Something Major is Afoot in Japan
Scatter of 26 week RoC in NKK vs. Yen. Last two weeks red – most upper left print in data set. Other prints in this area of the quadrant were Oct-Dec 95 as NKK was printing 10300-10400 – had ~6-8…...
Quick Global Macro Overview
The ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold is reaching resistance after a massive 55%, four month rally off support. At the same time, gold sits at support itself. The Dow analog calls for a correction if the index can rally…...