Is Gold Playing Catch up to the Yen and is its Fair Value $1,200?
Here’s the original post on this subject matter. We noted that since the early 2000s the gold had tended to lead the Yen. Deviations resulted in the Yen rallying or selling hard to catch up with gold. We also alluded…...
Why Has the Nikkei Out-Performed the SPX So Much Recently?
Our view is that the Nikkei has out-performed so much since later 2012 because of a technical set-up that was in place in the chart below. In that set-up the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei hit material long-term resistance…
Yen Now Near-Term Oversold; Still a Strong Believer in Intermediate & Long-Term Downside Thesis
The chart below shows the Yen on a weekly basis. It finds itself at support line (1) and (2). Moreover, in the lower pane, our preferred method of assessing price momentum has reached an oversold status seen only 6x since…...
Strong Linkage Between the Yen and Gold Breaking Down for First Time in Over a Decade
The Yen and gold have tended to broadly trade in lock-step fashion since the latter’s secular lows in the early 2000s. If deviations have appeared in that pattern the Yen has appreciated or depreciated rapidly to make up the difference…
Fresh Thoughts on the Ongoing Short Yen Trade
Our first high conviction short Yen trade came on August 14th in this post. At the time the Yen traded at ~1.27 vs. the current ~1.156, a decline of 9%+ over less than four months. Not too bad of a…
More Thoughts & Analysis on the Nikkei & Yen
Here are some background posts on how our thoughts have progressed on the Yen and Nikkei here, here, and as of last week, here. With these posts in mind, we present the Yen and ratio of the DJ Global Index…...
Short Yen Trade a Decent Opportunity with Clearly Defined Risk Paramters?
We’ve commented over the past few months one time about the Yen increasingly looking like a decent short opportunity. That said, it wasn’t yet clear the technical set-up was in place to actually execute the trade with any conviction. This…
Yen Finally a Short Candidate? Nikkei Finally Going to Outperform?
The Yen sits at multi-decade highs against the USD. The ratio of the DJ Global Index vs. the Nikkei the same (i.e., the former has outperformed the latter for quite some time). Interestingly though, the Yen recently broke below trend-line…...