Approaching a Cyclical Low in EM Equities

Approaching a Cyclical Low in EM Equities

For some time I’ve maintained the view that since peaking in 2007, EM equities have been in a secular bear akin to the two witnessed on the DJI from 1906-1925 and 1966-1985.  That said, as secular bears go, such cycles…...

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US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point

US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point

Below, note that the SPX has been flirting with cycle trend-line support off the 2009 lows for the past few weeks at inset (1).  With yesterday’s massive reversal off the Trump-Xi “truce” spike on Monday, we have now definitively broken…...

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Equities vs. Commodities - Something Still Has to Give

Equities vs. Commodities – Something Still Has to Give

Throughout 2018 I’ve covered the historically fast and deep decline in commodities vs. stocks over the decade that has ensued since the former peaked in 2008.   See here and here as background. I wanted to revisit the topic again just…...

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It Can Get Worse for China

It Can Get Worse for China

Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...

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History's Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

History’s Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

It’s one thing to analyze trough-peak equity cycles, indexing to 100% off a major low; it’s another to study them peak-peak, indexing to 100% off a major high, following both the ensuing bear market and the subsequent rebound and bull…...

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Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K.  Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...

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Symmetry in Palladium's Secular Cycles

Symmetry in Palladium’s Secular Cycles

Below I analog two separate palladium secular cycles, one from 1980-2001 and the other from 2001-current. Note the high degree of historical symmetry b/t these two cycles. At the moment, palladium is clearing its 2001 secular highs at the 100%…...

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Historically Oversold Gold

Historically Oversold Gold

Gold peaked a little over seven years ago in Apr-11. If we construct a simple 7-yr RoC chart below we find that as of Aug-18’s swing low, that RoC stood at -34%, tied with Mar-01’s level and slightly better than -39%…...

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Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes

Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes

As of month-end Sep-18, the USD (via DXY) had appreciated 21% over the trailing seven years while the ratio of EM equities vs. the SPX had declined 54% (seven years ago is where USD bottoms, commodities and EM/SPX generally peak).  This…...

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Where's Waldo?

Where’s Waldo?

In this May-18 post I discussed the significant implications – for both equities and bonds – of the bearish pattern that had emerged in the ratio b/t the SPX and 30-yr rates. In my view, that pattern was highly analogous…...

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