Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support
Below, the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index sits atop nearly 85-yr support dating back to the early 1930s, specifically 1933. Even more specifically, the support begins in Apr-May-1933. This is what happened in Apr-May-1933. Support was last touched in late…...
Historic Rally Set to Take Place in USDJPY, Nikkei?
Below I plot USDJPY on a monthly closing basis dating back to the 1950s. Beyond the fact that the resistance is nearly 50 years old, it begins when Nixon abandons the gold standard in 1971 and runs atop the 1985 high that…
200 Years of History Holds in 2018 as the SPX Total Return Index Fails to Register a 10th Consecutive Annual Gain
In July of last year I noted in this post that the SPX Total Return Index had posted a 9th consecutive annual gain in 2017 for only the fifth time in nearly 200 years of data. I emphasized that a…...
Approaching a Cyclical Low in EM Equities
For some time I’ve maintained the view that since peaking in 2007, EM equities have been in a secular bear akin to the two witnessed on the DJI from 1906-1925 and 1966-1985. That said, as secular bears go, such cycles…...
US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point
Below, note that the SPX has been flirting with cycle trend-line support off the 2009 lows for the past few weeks at inset (1). With yesterday’s massive reversal off the Trump-Xi “truce” spike on Monday, we have now definitively broken…...
Equities vs. Commodities – Something Still Has to Give
Throughout 2018 I’ve covered the historically fast and deep decline in commodities vs. stocks over the decade that has ensued since the former peaked in 2008. See here and here as background. I wanted to revisit the topic again just…...
It Can Get Worse for China
Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...
History’s Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles
It’s one thing to analyze trough-peak equity cycles, indexing to 100% off a major low; it’s another to study them peak-peak, indexing to 100% off a major high, following both the ensuing bear market and the subsequent rebound and bull…...
Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents
It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K. Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...
Symmetry in Palladium’s Secular Cycles
Below I analog two separate palladium secular cycles, one from 1980-2001 and the other from 2001-current. Note the high degree of historical symmetry b/t these two cycles. At the moment, palladium is clearing its 2001 secular highs at the 100%…...