PM VOL Compression
Below I plot gold and the spread b/t its 48 month high-low price range, which now stands at < 22%. Note that historically such a low spread is quite uncommon. In fact, there are only three other environments in which…...
Trust: How Low Can you Go?
Occasionally I venture over to the Pew Research Center and review some of their polling data and related commentary covering a myriad of different issues of concern to US citizens. Numerous Pew polls go back many decades, making some of…...
What is Bitcoin Discounting?
On 2/24/17 I presented the site’s first post on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT). In it, I compared silver’s set-up over the 1971-1980 period to XBT’s since 2010. In concluding I suggested the chart-based similarities of the two assets made XBT well-positioned to enjoy…...
Macro Round-Up
Let’s start with FX as it’s ultimately the most important driver when it comes to major inflection points and cycles in global macro. Here, as I noted in early August, the USD (via the DXY Index) continues to appear as if…...
Multiple Years of USD Work Suggests Another Secular Peak in Place
Back in March-2015 we highlighted the chart below when the USD was approaching ~100 and noted that at this price level the currency was nearing major long-term resistance line (1) and that it had spent very little time above that resistance…...
Gold, Finally Ready to Shine?
If the answer to the title of this piece is “no”, I swear to god it’s the last time I ever write about this god-forsaken metal. Anyhow, in the chart below I plot CHFUSD alongside gold through history. Note how…...
CHFUSD Break-out Nearing (Gold Pull-Through?)
CHFUSD (solid) and gold (dash) are plotted on a monthly basis over time below. Few assets correlate more strongly, more consistently or for longer periods of time than these two have for decades. Post 2011 peak for CHFUSD the cross…...
Multi-Month Gold Consolidation Likely Concluding
We last updated our thoughts on gold in this post last month. Using analogs in that post we suggested there were ~20 trading days or ~one month until it would reach a nadir, thus concluding a multi-month consolidation that began in…...
Ratio of Copper vs. Gold at 30-Yr Support, Last Reached Pre-Crash Apr-87, During GFC Jan-09
In the chart below the ratio of copper vs. gold is about to hit 30-year support. This ratio has been touched only two other times over that 30-year history – once in Apr-87 prior to the Aug-87 equity market peak…
JPYUSD, If/When > 1.00, Should Ignite New Upside Phase for Gold
In the chart below I plot JPYUSD over time. It’s pressing 1.00 as we speak. Over the past 30 years it’s spent very little time above 1.00 (green), but plenty below (red). Moreover, 1.00 has acted as a very important…