Gold Update
In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...
Gold Now in a Sustained, Structural Bull Market; On Average, History Suggests ~175% Incremental Upside
The last time we discussed gold on the site was a few weeks back in this post; therein we suggested a break-down in USDZAR was at hand and that should history hold, it would help propel and/or coincide with additional…
Tactically, USDZAR Break-Down Favorable for Gold; Strategically, Still Believe 2011 Was Not “The” High for the PM’s Secular Bull Run
After more than a 2x move off its 2011 lows, the USD put in what appeared to be be a fairly pronounced, multi-year (if not secular) peak in Jan-16 against ZAR. Since then, USDZAR has trended lower, consolidating around that…...
Silver Upside Could Accelerate in the Near-Term
On 4/19 I outlined a simple techincal break-out for silver and suggested it could be the start of a major rally. I followed that up a week later on 4/27 with a post that showed how the ratio of gold vs. silver was breaking…...
All the Macro that’s Fit to Print
Every corner rounded seems to be producing a different chimera to be contended with at the moment. BREXIT, growing portions of sovereign debt lurching into negative-yield territory, NIRP chaos and its impact on Euro banks, China deval/credit collapse, Islamo-fascism, Fed tightening and…...
More Evidence Supporting a Sizable Near-Term Gold Decline
Yesterday in this post we detailed why a Aug-93 outcome for gold that sees it decline ~600-700 bps in a single day was a heightened probability in the near-term. Today I offer additional, yet totally separate, evidence to support that…...
Y(EN)-TERVENTION Imminent?
When one thinks about the world’s largest exporters of “widgets”, China and Japan come to mind first. Which, in turn, should lead one to a consideration of the JPYCNY cross. Now, given the CNY peg to USD, the JPYCNY cross…...
Heightened Prospects of a Material Single-Day Plunge in Gold
In a recent post on gold we highlighted its generally bullish position with respect to our historical framework but added the caveat that it faced a significant near-term test – i.e., the 1993 analog comparison which showed how it had traded…...
Recent Renewal in Gold Upside Fits Our Historically Bullish Framework but Metal Faces Major Near-Term Test
On 1/18/16 I declared in this post that gold’s cycle low was in and only the path, duration and magnitude of any upside move was in question. Prior to that declaration, we emphasized over and over during the latter parts of…...
Early 2016’s Out-Performance in Gold vs. Other Commodities Signals New Bull Market for the Metal
In this 2/23/16 post we asked whether or not a sustained upside move in gold could continue to occur without other commodities in general also participating. In short, history suggested the answer to that question was yes. What we did not do in…...