Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds
“They have no choice, they’re either going to make the trades fair…and if it’s not fixed we’re not going to deal with these countries.” – President Trump at G7 Those sound like fightin’ words to me and they were largely directed…...
Excellent Place to Lay Down Longs for a Trip to 30K?
In the context of this week’s cycle-based work here and here, consider the following more granular and technical aspects of how the thesis presented therein (DJI –> ~30K –> Aug/Sep-18) could unfold. Specifically, note that the market’s Nov-17 parabolic blow-off happened to occur as…...
US Equity Cycles: One Chart to Rule them All?
Below I update a ~120-yr chart of the DJI with its associated linear regression plot and two standard deviation channels first revealed in this post in Jul-17. Red = extreme over-valuation and secular sells; light red = over-valuation; light green = under-valuation; green…...
Winter is Coming
Having failed to put a new and final lower low in place in late May as I had expected, the DJI appears to have broken out of its falling resistance this week, potentially – and finally – fulfilling the end…...
Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic
I’ve recently discussed the speed and ferocity of the relative decline in commodities vs. stocks since the former, via the CRB Index, peaked in 2008 vs. the DJI. At the ratio’s recent low in Jan-18 it had fallen > 81% vs….
Saudi Arabia Faces 13-Yr Falling Resistance
Below I plot the Tadawul Index – Saudi Arabia’s main equity index. Note that it has rallied up to test falling resistance off its 2006 and 2014 swing highs and that the former occurred 623 weeks ago. One of the…
Relative Industry & Associated Constituent Set-Ups
In the context of “needing” equity exposure, I present below a handful of relative industry set-ups that I find technically interesting. To reiterate, these are relative, not absolute industry out-performance ideas. In the event of major equity downside, consider them…
DB: The Great Counter-Party Unwind Cometh?
DB – the German-traded shares – now sit at 25-yr support with this morning’s ~5% decline baked into the cake. As the health of this behemoth appears increasingly tenuous, we must remind ourselves that DB holds anywhere from ~$40-$50 trillion…
Incorporating Tactical Precision into our Big-Picture Silver Work
I’ve recently written extensively about why I believe silver is poised for a window of out-sized upside this year, if even it comes in a brief window of time like 1987’s 65% rally, which occurred in two months. This thesis is largely…
Japan Chart Dump
I continue to believe, as crazy as it sounds, that the Nikkei might round-trip its 30-yr decline from 40K in 1989 by getting back to that level either this or next year. I’ve outlined the case for this scenario two…