Revisiting the Defense Industry as the First-Ever Audit of the DoD Commences

Revisiting the Defense Industry as the First-Ever Audit of the DoD Commences

All the way back in this Oct-12 post I highlighted the defense industry and a few of its individual components, noting what I thought were theire overall bullish positioning vs. the broader market after a decent stretch of under-performance. Below I…...

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Probability of US Recession Set to Rise Over the Coming Year, Perhaps Materially

Probability of US Recession Set to Rise Over the Coming Year, Perhaps Materially

Bloomberg publishes a  ‘Probability of US Recession Index’ (PROBRECN) based on a machine learning model developed by University of Oregon professor Jeremy Piger.  Here’s how Bloomberg describes the index and more detail can be found here: In effect, based on…...

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How Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?

How Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?

Haven’t updated my thoughts on Bitcoin (BB: XBT) in quite some time. I’m going to simply re-present the same set-up I did in our original thesis on XBT way back in Feb-17 when it was printing $1K, not the $20K it reached…...

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Analyst Price Target Changes as a Contrarian Indicator

Analyst Price Target Changes as a Contrarian Indicator

Having spent three years on the sell-side as an equity research analyst, I know first-hand how the game works: You have price targets (Px) for stocks on your coverage list and if the market randomly corrects, your director of research…...

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Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels

Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels

Below I plot the price of the US long bond. The YTD sell-off in 2018 has taken us down to a critical, nearly 40-yr support level.  It is this very support that has defined the secular bull market in fixed…...

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Last Buyable Correction into the Final Run?

Last Buyable Correction into the Final Run?

I’d like to use this post to analyze the current ~10% correction in US equities in the context of our mid-cycle pause analog.  As that framework goes, I’m not entirely surprised the correction is occurring here and now. I’m not…...

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Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support

Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support

Something on the macro front that’s beginning to get some attention is the US yield curve (2s10s), but I think it’s being discussed and analyzed absent proper context. What’s being emphasized is its collapse over the past year.  This is true…...

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How Historic Bubbles End

How Historic Bubbles End

The selling in Bitcoin has been relentless since its 12/17/17 peak.  Moreover, since then, its rallies have been listless and lacking in vigor. It all adds up to a major deviation in the road-map I had envisioned for the asset relative…...

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EM Equities: 2007's Secular High In Sight

EM Equities: 2007’s Secular High In Sight

I last updated our ongoing secular bear market analog framework for EM equities ~four months ago in this  “Macro Round-Up” post, but as a refresher, first introduced it in this Jan-17 post. There were five central conclusions outlined in the original piece: EM began…...

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US Equities' Historically Extended RSI

US Equities’ Historically Extended RSI

As of the week of 12/15/17 the DJI’s weekly RSI logged a print of 85.6 (have chosen DJI instead of SPX because former has more available chart history).  It’s continued to print > 85 in each of the ensuing three…...

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