Team Trump Publicly Echoing McKinley, but in the Spirit of FDR and Nixon
Over the past year I’ve spent much time on this site detailing the bullish/bearish case for gold miners and the USD. The axis of this thesis spins on the idea that 2018 is analogous to the early 1930s and 1970s,…...
US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point
Below, note that the SPX has been flirting with cycle trend-line support off the 2009 lows for the past few weeks at inset (1). With yesterday’s massive reversal off the Trump-Xi “truce” spike on Monday, we have now definitively broken…...
Equities vs. Commodities – Something Still Has to Give
Throughout 2018 I’ve covered the historically fast and deep decline in commodities vs. stocks over the decade that has ensued since the former peaked in 2008. See here and here as background. I wanted to revisit the topic again just…...
It Can Get Worse for China
Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...
German Bank Index Breaking Below 60-Year Support Shelf
Below I plot the German DAX Credit Bank Index (think DB) and note that after a few failed attempts with subsequent bounces in recent years, it finally appears to be breaking below 60 years of support dating back to the…...
LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Materials SECTOR
Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history. Posts will be grouped by sector, and each sector post will show all the relative sub-industries within it. I’ve generally tried to only…...
LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Tech SECTOR
Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history. Posts will be grouped by sector, and each sector post will show all the relative sub-industries within it. I’ve generally tried to only…...
History’s Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles
It’s one thing to analyze trough-peak equity cycles, indexing to 100% off a major low; it’s another to study them peak-peak, indexing to 100% off a major high, following both the ensuing bear market and the subsequent rebound and bull…...
LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Industrial SECTOR
Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history. Posts will be grouped by sector, and each sector post will show all the relative sub-industries within it. I’ve generally tried to only…
LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Healthcare Sector
Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history. Posts will be grouped by sector, and each sector post will show all the relative sub-industries within it. I’ve generally tried to only…