EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows

EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows

Using standard (20, 2) inputs, last week’s Bollinger Band (BB) print on EURUSD stood at 2.3%, up mildly from the recent low of 2.2% posted in early March. That’s the tightest reading in over 40 years.  Not since 1977 when the BB printed…...

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17 Years of Biotech Outperforming Pharma Coming to an End?

17 Years of Biotech Outperforming Pharma Coming to an End?

Below I plot a simple chart – the ratio of the PPH pharma ETF vs. the IBB biotech ETF. After multiple failed break-outs over the past nearly two decades, you’ll see the ratio breaking above 17-yr downtrend resistance line (1)…

Global Commodities Continue to Flirt with 85-Yr Support

Global Commodities Continue to Flirt with 85-Yr Support

I pointed this out at the beginning of March but wanted to do the same as we head toward the end of the month because I find it so important: Global commodity prices, via the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index…

Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?

Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?

Had a repeat of 1937 been on tap, the market would have followed through on last week’s ~300 bps decline with further weakness.  It didn’t and instead, rebounded strongly.  So, back to the drawing board. As you are well aware, I…...

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FDR Redux?

FDR Redux?

Anchored off objective, definitive swing highs from Jul-33 and Feb-15 that went on to register one year “pauses”, we are approximately at that point in Aug-37 where the market, having made a significant retrace of its initial bear market decline…...

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Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support

Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support

Below, the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index sits atop nearly 85-yr support dating back to the early 1930s, specifically 1933. Even more specifically, the support begins in Apr-May-1933.  This is what happened in Apr-May-1933.  Support was last touched in late…...

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Historic Rally Set to Take Place in USDJPY, Nikkei?

Historic Rally Set to Take Place in USDJPY, Nikkei?

Below I plot USDJPY on a monthly closing basis dating back to the 1950s.  Beyond the fact that the resistance is nearly 50 years old, it begins when Nixon abandons the gold standard in 1971 and runs atop the 1985 high that…

Global Macro Round-Up

Global Macro Round-Up

FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue.  USDCNY is currently testing…...

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Surreptitious Bitcoin Bottom?

Surreptitious Bitcoin Bottom?

Bitcoin (BTC) was one of the most enjoyable trades I’ve ever had on because i) I did well $ on it, but ii) up until the end, its path mapped out as well as any I’ve ever seen vs. what the…...

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Copper Could Quickly Soar to Former Highs

Copper Could Quickly Soar to Former Highs

I’ve been studying copper’s historical cyclical bear cycles over the past few months.  There haven’t been many of these bears – only four, including the current one since 2011, that I can see – but what’s interesting about them is the similarity of…...

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