Basic Material Depression
Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Basic Materials Index (longer history than SPX Basic Materials Index). Its worst print in 2018 as it lapped the 2008 global commodity high was -63%. That was the third-worst secular print…...
Mustang Sally
Below I plot the long-term ratio of F vs. the SPX. It sits at 70-yr support dating back to late 1957! Support was last touched in late 1981 and was briefly and sharply breached during the 2008-2009 GFC,when many auto…...
Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom
With a recent piece in Bloomberg highlighting the Nasdaq’s post-4Q18 out-performance resurgence, I thought I’d revisit the topic. Recall that back in Jul-2018 I noted that the Nasdaq’s run of out-performance vs. the SPX was nearing its longest/largest duration/magnitude in history. In retrospect,…...
Japan: Historically Cheap
I want to preface by stating I consider valuation analysis the least important part of process. It’s usefulness for calling a major inflection point in any asset class is or approaches zero. However, as part of a broader analytical tool-kit,…...
Updated EM Secular Bear Analog
Here’s an updated look at the EM secular bear analog. Recent, plodding strength in EM is consistent with how both of the DJI’s secular bears acted in this area of their own respective secular bear cycles. Here’s the EM plot…...
India: Best-Looking Equity Market in the World?
Below I plot the Bombay Sensex (BSE) Index going back to 1980 on the left, and 2001 on the right. The long-term view reveals that the BSE has performed excellently over time. It also reveals that it tends to make…...
Platinum Currently Sits Atop Nearly 50 Years of Support
Below we find that platinum (futures) sits atop support dating back to the early 1970s, or when Nixon abandoned the gold standard. That’s nearly 50 years of support. The last time this support was reached in the late 1990s. Thus, on…...
EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows
Using standard (20, 2) inputs, last week’s Bollinger Band (BB) print on EURUSD stood at 2.3%, up mildly from the recent low of 2.2% posted in early March. That’s the tightest reading in over 40 years. Not since 1977 when the BB printed…...
17 Years of Biotech Outperforming Pharma Coming to an End?
Below I plot a simple chart – the ratio of the PPH pharma ETF vs. the IBB biotech ETF. After multiple failed break-outs over the past nearly two decades, you’ll see the ratio breaking above 17-yr downtrend resistance line (1)…
Global Commodities Continue to Flirt with 85-Yr Support
I pointed this out at the beginning of March but wanted to do the same as we head toward the end of the month because I find it so important: Global commodity prices, via the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index…