Big Picture Update

Our highest conviction thematics within our big picture thinking remain the following: US equities: mid-cycle pause framework EU equities: major periphery rally underway, per N225 (2012) and SHCOMP (2014) set-ups EM equities: large cyclical rally underway up to 2007 highs…...

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Despite the Massive Rally Since 2012 Is the Airline Secular Bear Just Now Ending?

Per the break above line (1) in the chart below, airlines as a group (via the SPX Airlines Index) have now cleared a 26-year resistance line dating back to the early 1990s. We highlighted this developing set-up in early June…...

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Is Peripheral Europe's Permafrost Finally Thawing?

One of the better analytical pieces and frameworks published on this site since 2012 was this piece from 7/2/2013 that questioned the timeliness of Barron’s renewed calls for a Chinese credit crisis by pointing out that since the SHCOMP had…...

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Chart Dump

Haven’t done one of these posts in quite some time.  However, I’m back to including my old charting software in my analytical process, so posts such as these become a little easier as that software allows me to group numerous…...

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Here’s some of the site’s better work over the years, with a focus on the categories of ‘Cycles’, ‘Sectors’ and ‘Companies’. The ‘Cycles’ category is big-picture, high-level analysis that aims to identify major inflection points in various global equity markets;…

Exiting the Tarmac, In Que on the Runway

Not to victory-lap this too much, but I think I managed to call the end of the airline secular bear and its likely transition into a secular bull well before nearly anybody else did publicly and certainly before it was a…...

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Accelerated Domestic Equity Upside (2013 Repeat?)

I generally try to avoid granular, shorter-term chart analysis, but I’m going to do just that in the one presented below because the analysis comes in the context of corroboratory evidence for a broader framework and thesis. Either way, note that…...

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Gold, Finally Ready to Shine?

If the answer to the title of this piece is “no”, I swear to god it’s the last time I ever write about this god-forsaken metal. Anyhow, in the chart below I plot CHFUSD alongside gold through history.  Note how…...

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EU Analog Update

It’s been two months since we laid out our EU/Portugal analog framework for the first time and six weeks since we last updated it. It now looks as follows (using  Portugal’s PSI20 Index; all analogs present the first year of…...

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EMs Approaching Long-Term Resistance, What Next?

The MSCI EM Index (MXEF) is approaching historical resistance dating back to its 2007 highs on a monthly closing basis below. On a weekly closing basis the set-up is similar, though the index has some remaining upside left. In the…...

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