Multi-Year Disparity Between SPX Gains and Actual SPX EPS Growth Alarming
I pointed out a few times late last year as it was underway that the YoY in SPX EPS, according to the monthly Shiller data, was in negative territory for seven consecutive months (Sep 2012-March 2013) even as the SPX…...
China Analog Update
Wanted to provide a quick update on our previously cited China analog, which builds off the original logic about the region being at a major cyclical low first postulated in early July of this year here. There sure has been…...
Semis On Deck
Our views on semis have evolved as follows over the past year+: 10/15/12: “…we believe semiconductors have more relative downside left vs. the broader market…” 7/16/13: “…we are ready to make a high conviction industry call on semi-conductors and suggest over-weighting the…...
Sigh…
Using monthly Shiller data, over the past year Dec-12 to Dec -13, the yield on the 10 Yr UST has risen ~75% to 300 bps from ~170 bps; concurrently, the SPX has risen ~28% to its current level. With this…...
Charting a Path to 45,000
We were very early to the Nikkei long and secular bull story, having first outlined the rough sketches of this call all the way back in June 2012, long before it was fashionable. We added greater depth and confidence to…
Chart Dump of Nine Long Opportunities
There are nine long opportunities in the chart package below. They cover a broad array of industries including gaming, homebuilders, shipping and medical equipment. In one form or another, we’ve liked each of these industries at one point or another…...
Geniuses Abound
As of late, I took notice that the “dumb” money has been feeling pretty good about the market and its prospects for additional upside. I suppose that happens when stocks go up for five consecutive years, culminating in this year’s…...
Short-Term Trading Opportunity
Be owners of PMs and related items before the Fed meeting concludes today. This is a very short-term opportunity. Wanted to get this out pre-FOMC today. Per the silver post-bubble analog chart below, the next three weeks have the metal…...
This Works
On 6/17 I indicated I liked the publishing industry as a source of alpha/out-performance. Fundamentally, this post was prompted by the 6/13 announcement that GCI would acquire BLC for a 30% premium and that this deal likely portended additional consolidation…...
Fair Value for the 10 Yr?
Risk-free, 10 Yr UST rates DO influence pricing on Aaa-rated corporate issues. As such, the Fed’s bond buying program of government securities has invariably pushed yields on Aaa-rated issues lower than they would be ex the Fed’s influence, resulting in…...