Analog Update
To repeat, 2013 is only the fourth example of a 5th consecutive annual gain in the Dow’s history dating back to the late 1800s – 1928, 1989 and 1995 are the other three examples. In light of this week’s downside…...
One of Eight
Have finally found something worth writing about… In this post I want to revisit the 4-Yr RoC framework we discussed a few times in spring of this year. We first presented that framework and its significance in this post and built…...
Analog Update
I apologize as I don’t have a ton of incremental, edgy ideas or content right now. As I hope you know, if there is relevant work to be posted, I do it, but only then. Certainly, there’s any number of…...
More Elaboration on the Potential for the Fireworks Dissipating
At the end of October we had two detailed posts (here’s #1 and here’s #2) that suggested 2014 could very well turn out to be a year that lacked fireworks, unlike every single year since the global equity/debt/real estate peak in…...
Has the Gate Become Sufficiently Narrow?
The history of gold since the 60s is one of major multi-year rallies, followed by major multi-year sell-offs, followed by another leg of major multi-year rallies and so on. Forgive the self-indulgent melodrama, but a quote from Matthew 7:13 might…...
NBD
No big deal, but the Nikkei is currently pressing up against 24-year resistance line (1) in the chart below. I’ll merely point out that the index has not been above this resistance line since 1989, or coming off its all-time…...
24-Year Support at Hand for This Ratio
The ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is at 24-year support line (1) below. Additionally, line (2) support is at hand. I would note that line (1) was not hit in May when the Nikkei peaked at 16K. Line (1)…...
For this Relic of the Past…Upside?
Dating back to February, when JCP stood at $20, we suggested it was a dangerous falling knife with plenty more downside to go. Nearly four months ago on 8/1 I then criticized both JCP and SHLD as being relics of retail’s glory…...
Lower-Risk/Higher-Reward Spread Trade Idea Useful for Those Looking to Deploy Excess Cash Balances
In the following chart we show the ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold. Into its 2012/2013 low of ~5, this ratio had fallen ~90% from its 2000-era high of ~70. However, upon hitting 12.38 last week, note the ratio has…...
Though Down 30% in a Year, More Declines Likely in This Ratio
Since our 11/14 post highlighting the likelihood that the Nikkei would not experience another short-term, 20% decline and would instead begin to rally sustainably again into our long standing 45K-50K target, the index has rallied 450 bps. By comparison, the…...