Gold Miners Update
On 12/4/12 we suggested it was time to be short gold miners in this post. Since then, the index has decline by ~370 bps. Decent, but not stellar, return on the short in a single month. In our view, given…...
Central Banks Have Done an Excellent Job of Back-Stopping Global Risk Appetite
The chart below plots the average path that U.S. secular bear markets (1901-1921; 1929-1942; 1966-1982) have taken through history and compares it to the path the current (presumed) secular bear of 2000-2012. The path of the current had plotted nearly…
Silver Sits at Some Intermediate Support
The chart below is self-explanatory – silver finds itself sitting at some very important intermediate, swing support at ~$30. This is the level, along line (1), where nearly all of the metal’s big moves and price action have occurred since…...
As Suggested in October, Coffee Could Continue to Disappoint Long Positions Over the Intermediate-Term
In early October when coffee stood at ~160+ we had a rather detailed post explaining why we thought it would continue to disappoint longs over the intermediate-term, despite the fact that it had sold off materially already and commercial players had…...
Nikkei Tacks on Another ~3% Tonight To its Already Incredible Run; Where’s the Next Relevant Resistance?
The Nikkei’s run has been incredible over the past few months. In early June 2012 at the global equity bottom, futures were trading at ~8,225 vs. the current 10,880. That’s a 30% gain in six months. In the chart below…...
Consolidation Patterns in Gold & Silver Appear to be Ending
Both gold and silver find themselves caught in consolidation/flag patterns in the chart below, formed by their respective lines (1) and (2). Both currently sit on line (2) support. We aren’t suggesting which direction they’re apt to turn in next…
Contrarian Short Opportunity in Consumer Tech?
V and MA presented in the chart below. Both are reaching/close to formidable long-term resistance lines. As this resistance approaches, a timely contrarian cover story in Barron’s this past week espousing the need to buy both names. The long-term thesis…...
After a 50% Rally in the DAX Barron’s Wants us to ‘Buy Europe’; How Timely is that Call?
Throughout 2012, every time we saw a 5%-10% correction, we heard the “CRASH!” sirens going off. As we pointed out here during the last such correction into November, the crash had already happened, but it was in 2011 when nobody…
Grains Down Double Digits in a Few Months, Now What?
Here was our original post on grains back in September. In that post we suggested being short some combo of soybeans, wheat and corn. All are down double-digits or are close to being down that much since the post. In…...
Working Thesis for 2013
Let’s just get this out of the way right up front – I was completely,unequivocally wrong to pivot to the “not-bullish / mildly bearish” camp late last week. I think it’s quite clear that the combination of Monday’s ~25 pt…