Dow Going to 17K Before 2013 is Up?

Dow Going to 17K Before 2013 is Up?

Look at the analog below. The black line is the Dow, 2012-2013YTD. We refrain from revealing what the red line is and why it makes sense to compare it to the black one. However, do they get more compelling than…

JCP Remains a Dangerous Falling Knife

JCP Remains a Dangerous Falling Knife

Huge decline in JCP today. However, lines (1) and (2), the stock’s most relevant long-term support zones, remain decently lower. Line (2) is a whole 35% lower! If line (2) gives, don’t be surprised to concurrently see increasing doubts surrounding…

Historical Cycle Analysis Update

Historical Cycle Analysis Update

This post looks at bull market cycle lengths through history. We define length as follows: 1) Cycle begins when Dow YoY goes to positive territory (at least +5%) from negative on a monthly basis 2) Cycle ends when Dow YoY goes…...

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Survey of the Set-up in Sugar

Survey of the Set-up in Sugar

I’m buying sugar. I present the CoT report which shows commercial with its largest net long since 2008 and one of its largest net longs ever.  The inverse is true for large specs.  Small specs have their largest net short…...

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A Perennially Poor Market Timing Tool, Why is the Shiller P/E Ratio Critical all of a Sudden?

A Perennially Poor Market Timing Tool, Why is the Shiller P/E Ratio Critical all of a Sudden?

Take a look at the rolling 10 year average P/E ratio on the SPX below. It current stands at ~22.5x. What do you notice? Why has this level been so important in the context of history? Why is it that…...

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Long-Term Meat Product Bull Market Over?  Impact to Stocks & Industries?

Long-Term Meat Product Bull Market Over? Impact to Stocks & Industries?

The first half of this post’s title is not a joke. In the charts below live and feeder cattle have been battling quarter-century, long-term channel resistance over the past two years, having, along with the rest of the commodity group,…...

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All Over for Housing Re-Inflation?

All Over for Housing Re-Inflation?

Both lumber and LEN face significant long-term channel resistance in the charts below. Is the Bernanke-inspired housing re-inflation run over for home-builders and housing in general?  

What can We Learn From Rasheed Wallace?

What can We Learn From Rasheed Wallace?

For your viewing pleasure, we present a recent clip from an NBA game in which long-time league veteran Rasheed Wallace gets ejected for mouthing off to refs. The amount of market-applicable knowledge in the classic quote Wallace provides toward the…

Is Gold Playing Catch up to the Yen and is its Fair Value $1,200?

Is Gold Playing Catch up to the Yen and is its Fair Value $1,200?

Here’s the original post on this subject matter. We noted that since the early 2000s the gold had tended to lead the Yen. Deviations resulted in the Yen rallying or selling hard to catch up with gold. We also alluded…...

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This Stock Sits on Decade Long Support and Analysts Don't Like It

This Stock Sits on Decade Long Support and Analysts Don’t Like It

What stock is this? The last time it hit the support line in the chart below rallies of 3.5x and 2.3x quickly ensued. We find the set-up similar to the one in HHS which we originally posted about here and…