This Industry is Down 50% on a Relative Basis Since 2010; Can the Trend Reverse?
The first chart is the ratio of the DJ Brewer Index vs. SPX. Look at the confluence of support lines that are currently meeting and the fact that the consolidation pattern they help to create around the ratio has tightened…...
As Outlined in September, $1,000 Remains a High Probability Upside Target for GOOG
On September 12th we had a post titled “GOOG’s Day in the Sun is Likely Arriving with $1,000 in the Cards”. In that post we noted GOOG was in the process of breaking out from a bullish ascending triangle pattern…
Potential for Pound to Fall 20% Against the USD?
The Pound has traded in a very well defined and behaved downward sloping channel against the USD for nearly a quarter century b/t lines (1) and (2) below. The only time this was not the case was during the global…
Are Solar Stocks Intrinsically Cheap?
Very simple post here. The analog below shows the path the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) has taken off its highs in 2008 and compares it to the path the average and worst bubbles have taken off their respective highs through…...
A Highly Favored Group of Ours Faces Near-Term Resistance
We’ve been very bullish on Airlines dating back to the genesis of this site in May of last year. Our original and ongoing thesis on the group can be seen by clicking right here. As of right now, the group, via the…
Could 20 Years of Relative Under-Performance in This Industry Be on the Cusp of Sustainably Reversing?
Ratio of the DJ Food Retail & Wholesaler Index vs. SPX is plotted below on the far left. It’s done nothing but travel from upper left to lower right of the chart for 20 years. In other words, stocks in…...
Mega-Cap Gold Miner Bellwether ABX Sitting at Critical Support
If support line (1) can’t hold, the next stop is 35% lower at line (2) support. Big crossroads for not only this stock, but the group. If the industry bellwether can’t hold here, the weaker ones won’t either. On the…
Does the Macro Technical Landscape for Equities Include 10%-15% More Upside?
We plot the SPX and Dow in three charts below. In the weekly SPX chart on the far left, note the massive ascending wedge pattern b/t lines (1) and (2) – line (1) runs to the 1987 top and line…
More Gold Miner Thoughts
Wanted to update this evolving short set-up with three charts. Each has a similar conclusion and when triangulated, suggests intermediate-term downside of ~25%. Such downside can be captured via a GDX short, via DUST, a 3x inverse ETF on gold…...
Why Has the Nikkei Out-Performed the SPX So Much Recently?
Our view is that the Nikkei has out-performed so much since later 2012 because of a technical set-up that was in place in the chart below. In that set-up the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei hit material long-term resistance…