Greatest Hits

Here’s some of the site’s better work over the years, with a focus on the categories of ‘Cycles’, ‘Sectors’ and ‘Companies’.

The ‘Cycles’ category is big-picture, high-level analysis that aims to identify major inflection points in various global equity markets; the ‘Sectors’ category does the same with US-based sectors.

However, don’t by any means allow the posts below to limit your perusing of the site and all of its various categories.  Feel free to meander at will.

All posts are presented in reverse chronological order with the latest entries listed first.

From the ‘Cycles’ archives:

Portuguese Equities Coiled

2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year

EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

European Equities Can Continue to Run, Out-Perform

Counting Both Up & Down

Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot (to SPX 2,400+ by 2016 Year-End)

Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top?)

Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally

Unveiling a New (Bullish) Framework for 2016

History Suggests 2015’s Volatility Is Just another Mid-Cycle Pause

Past Six Years of Chinese Malaise Nearly Unprecedented

Is Barron’s Call for a Credit Crisis in China Correct?

Market Nearly Perfectly on Track to Deliver 15% Median, One-Year Gain as Suggested Last August

Is James Glassman Really That Crazy, Why the Dow Potentially Has 60%-170% More Upside & Why Contrary to Michael Moore’s Views, Markets & Capitalism Worked Better Than Ever in Facilitating the Sub-Prime Crisis

Working Thesis for 2013

Nikkei Working on a Break-Out; Next Up 14K by the End of 2013?

If U.S. Bonds are the “Big Short” of the Next Decade, it Likely Means Japanese Equities are the “Big Long”

Was October 2011 a Major Low for the SPX? Crazy to Suggest SPX 1,685-1,800 by Winter 2013?

If the Dow Closes above 12,982 this Week, Data Back to 1896 Says There’s a 91% Chance it Will Be Higher in a Year by 15% (Median Gain, 63 Examples)

How the Use of An Analog Would Have Had you Long at SPX 1,075 on 10/3/11

 From the ‘Sectors’ archives:

Press Long Semi Bets

Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX

Long Radio-active, Coal Finally Looks Attr-active on a Relative Basis

4 Years of Biotech Relative Outperformance Appears to Have Run its Course

Trailer Park Trash Could Become “Bourgie”

Long-Term Meat Product Bull Market Over? Impact to Stocks & Industries?

Could 20 Years of Relative Under-Performance in This Industry Be on the Cusp of Sustainably Reversing?

Defense Industry Ready to Out-Perform?

Case for Airlines Out-Performing Continues to Build

Biotechs Should Continue to Out-Perform Materially

Much Maligned Airlines About to Sustainably Outperform?

 From the ‘Companies’ archives: 

Out with the Old, In with the New

This Industrial Company’s Break-Out from Two Years of Consolidation is Bullish, but Also Signals the Potential for a Similar Move in Broader Equities

Despite Massive YTD Run, AMZN Remains Very Compelling; Could Hit $1,000+ Or At Least Out-Perform AAPL Significantly

Long Two Healthcare-Related Names

13-Year Support Could Help Propel This Stock to Material Upside

“Those Five-Year Highs…You Will Never, Ever In Your Life See Those Highs Again”

YHOO Up 50% in Six Months, Remains on Track to Hit $33

NAV & SRI Up 60%-70% in Less Than Six Months