The Case for Nikkei 40K in 2018
In mid-October I updated my thinking on the Nikkei, asking in this post whether its break above quarter-century resistance meant it was finally “game-on” for the region’s much beleaguered equities after what seemed to be an enduring, generational secular bear…
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update: First Signs of Euphoria?
Since I last updated my big-picture, mid-cycle pause analog framework for assessing US equities in mid-October in this post, optimism about Trump’s tax plan and its ability to successfully sail through Congress has mounted. Tax-related optimism has begun to infect…...
Trust: How Low Can you Go?
Occasionally I venture over to the Pew Research Center and review some of their polling data and related commentary covering a myriad of different issues of concern to US citizens. Numerous Pew polls go back many decades, making some of…...
Textbook Semi Reversal
We’ve written extensively in the past 18 months about the bullish case for owning and over-weighting semiconductor stocks. Our last semi-specific piece was from March of this year. In it, we noted that the group had experienced a major relative…...
Chart Dump
I promised some constituent charts would emanate from the various industries I profiled earlier this week as areas of potential out-performance vs. the broader market. Recall from that post that I ended with the following: “In concluding, telco equipment, electronic…...
Relativity Review
Let’s do a review of some industries and their relative positions vs. the broader market (SPX) to see if we can find any interesting set-ups. I have a personal predilection toward these types of reviews as they’re often one of…...
Angelic (Part 2)
In March-15 when the stock was at ~$15.50 we highlighted HALO, a bio-tech company, in this post. Our interest in the name was entirely attributable to its very unique and favorable-looking ascending triangle pattern, which had been developing since 2004…....
WMT’s Relative Break-Out vs. the SPX
I’ve put up two bullish pieces on WMT over the past two years, the first here in Nov-15 and the next here in Jan-16. The first piece noted that WMT was: At l-t support as its YoY was very oversold…...
Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning
An analysis of nearly 100 years of history compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...
Near-Term Swing High For Bitcoin?
I last wrote about Bitcoin ( Bloomberg: XBT) on 9/16/17 in this post. Therein we continued our ongoing comparison of the parallels b/t XBT’s cycle since its late 2008 introduction and silver during its halcyon cycle of 1970-1980, a conceptual framework…...