2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year
On 8/15/12 I penned a piece that suggested the DJI had a 90%+ (91% to be exact) probability of being higher one year out with a median expected gain of ~15%. The nuts and bolts of that summer-2012 analysis and…...
EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings
Emerging markets, via MXEF (MSCI EM Index), peaked in Oct-07 at ~1,300. Today, some ~480 weeks and over nine years later, it stands at ~887, or 32% below its Oct-07 high. Throughout the entirety of that elapsed time period MXEF…...
What More Would You Need?
What more would it take on the chart below for you to believe the belief that the risk/reward on CMG was skewed in your favor over the l-t? Good, l-t business that will presumably not only be around in 10,…...
European Equities Can Continue to Run, Out-Perform
In the chart below I plot the Stoxx600 over time. As of now the YoY has surged to ~+7% after spending the entirety of the past year in negative territory. If you follow the horizontal red line back through history…...
See What Sticks
I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start. When discussed…...