Semi Rally Now Faces Relative Resistance
I began advocating semi longs and over-weights beginning in June of last year. Since then and after breaking out from the long-term flag pattern b/t lines (1) and (2), the ratio of the SOX vs. SPX is up ~26%, all…...
CHFUSD Break-out Nearing (Gold Pull-Through?)
CHFUSD (solid) and gold (dash) are plotted on a monthly basis over time below. Few assets correlate more strongly, more consistently or for longer periods of time than these two have for decades. Post 2011 peak for CHFUSD the cross…...
Nike & Lebron: Ringing the Bell at the Top
There hasn’t been much good news for NKE shareholders subsequent to the 12/7/15 announcement that it had allegedly signed a life-time sponsorship deal with Lebron James for $1 billion. Indeed, they say nobody rings a bell at the top, but…
Overbought?
Hearing a lot about how over-bought US equities are lately. Much of the clamor is related to the relentless sprint higher since 11/8/16 and the election of Trump. However, if one can accept the assumption that the cycle underway is…
Analog/Cycle Update
The “pause” the market experienced from May-15 until later last year, whereby it traded in a tight sideways range for a little over a year without falling meaningfully, has but three historical precedents going back to the 1800s. Near identical…...
Silver Shorts?
As of last week silver managed its ninth consecutive weekly gain. The last time it closed with a weekly loss was during the week of Xmas, or 12/23/16. Over the course of its 9 week streak it rallied ~17%, closing…
Bitcoin (Echoes of Precious Metals in 1978?)
As noted earlier when it was printing 1125, Bitcoin (XBT), now at 1175, has been in the process this week of breaking its former all-time weekly closing high of 1137 in Nov-13. The move completes a consolidation process off that…...
SPX Constituent Chart Dump
Let’s take a look at a collection of interesting-looking SPX constituent charts. All are focused on the bullish side of the fence. Companies are presented in chronological order by name. I went through all 500 companies in the index to…...
Thailand Attempting to Clear Nearly a Quarter-Century of Overhead Resistance
Below you’ll find Thailand’s SET Index attempting to clear nearly a quarter-century of over-head resistance this month, dating all the way back to Dec-93. The break-out above, assuming it holds through the remainder of the month, should dove-tail nicely with…...
Semis: Still More Room to Run
On 7/11/16 we outlined the case for a material and sustained upside move in semis, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the broader market. We followed up that initial post with an update to the thesis on 8/10/16,…...