SPX Creating an Incredibly Bearish Wick at Important Resistance

If today’s losses hold through tomorrow (a BIG if), the SPX weekly chart will look like it does below (or worse). In that chart you can see the SPX has put up an incredibly bearish looking wick at important resistance…....

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Did April Witness Another Failure at the SPX’s Most Important Technical Line in the Sand Dating Back to the 80s?

I find technicals so inherently valuable because they offer such clear parameters for identifying where something has changed (or not).  They offer great lines in the sand in terms of facilitating improved exeuction – long here / short here. So,…...

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Yen Finally a Short Candidate? Nikkei Finally Going to Outperform?

The Yen sits at multi-decade highs against the USD.  The ratio of the DJ Global Index vs. the Nikkei the same (i.e., the former has outperformed the latter for quite some time). Interestingly though, the Yen recently broke below trend-line…...

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Silver, Like Gold, Appears Technically Broken; Potential for Near-Term Downside Rising

A few weeks ago we highlighted our belief that gold appeared to be broken, purely from a technical and price-action perspective. Turning our attention to silver, we believe the same is true. A look at the first chart below depicts…...

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Ratio of 10 Yr vs. 30 Yr UST Price at an Important Juncture for Future Direction of Equities

The attached shows that the ratio of the 10 Yr vs. 30 Yr UST price is hitting trend-line support that has been in place since 1986. The first point to make is that it is typically at this line where 10…...

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Getting Granular – RSI on SPY 60 Min Chart Reaching Extreme Levels Seen Only 4x in Past Year

The RSI on the 60 min SPY chart has only been this elevated, whether it be euphoria or something else, 4x over the past year. Once was in early July 2011 when Greece managed to secure a release of bailout…...

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Based on the Average Historical Outcome, this Very Reliable Indicator Suggests SPX ~1,550 by October

On October 3, 2011 when the SPX closed at 1,100, investors in the Rydex family of funds had nearly $1.60 invested in money market fund vehicles for every $1.00 invested in long or sector-based equity mutual funds. In effect, cash balances…...

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AAPL’s Run Highly Similar to Silver’s Parabolic Move; $1,000/$1 Trillion Cap Next?

Have attached two items to look at – one is a daily analog chart that compares the % increase in AAPL from January 2012 to current vs. the % increase SLV experienced from September 2010 to April 2011. These starting…...

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Does Volatility Tell us anything about the Potential for a Sustained Move Higher?

If history holds, YES!  And that probability is reasonably high. If the market meets certain qualifications today (most importantly, if the VIX closes < 17.8 and one other item) our proprietary “fear” and volatility-based market timing tool will have provided its first…...

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Potential for Longer-Term Dollar Rally Could Cause Small Caps to Under-Perform

Potential for Longer-Term Dollar Rally Could Cause Small Caps to Under-Perform

In the chart below the ratio of the R2K vs. SPX is presented in black. As the line increases small caps outperform large caps and vice versa. This ratio is plotted against the USD in red, which is inverted. Together,…...

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