Revisiting the R2K – If History is Correct, Downside Risks Remain Elevated over Intermediate-Term

On 5/31/12 we ran a post on the R2K that suggested, based on its current price structure and momentum in the context of history, the path of least resistance for the index was lower, not higher, over the intermediate term…....

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More Analysis Around the Potential for a Greek Exit / Drachma Reintroduction

A short while back we ran some detailed analysis on historical currency devaluation episodes and suggested that should Greece exit the Euro and reintroduce the Drachma, the time to buy Greek equities on a nominal basis would be at the time of…...

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Outcomes for Equities Here & Contingency Planning for Each Potential Set-Up

I think there are two potential outcomes here: 1) Per the first chart below – the SPX daily – there’s a chance that the move off the late May / early June lows of ~1,280 and the choppy consolidation that then…...

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How the Use of An Analog Would Have Had you Long at SPX 1,075 on 10/3/11

The chart below analogs the periods of July 1986-December 1987 and July 2010-October 2011. Without going into the additional historical statistical details of how one would triangulate or back into 1,075 as “the” point bottom to buy on 10/3/11, the…...

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AAPL’s Run Highly Similar to Silver’s Parabolic Move; $1,000/$1 Trillion Cap Next?

Have attached two items to look at – one is a daily analog chart that compares the % increase in AAPL from January 2012 to current vs. the % increase SLV experienced from September 2010 to April 2011. These starting…...

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Was 2011 the “Real” Top? / The Power of Monetary Stimulus

Can they keep the ball in the air? That’s the question in the back of the head of any bear. Not to be overly dramatic, but nearly every economic and monetary force in the world is aligned against bearish risk…...

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1973/1974 the Closest Parallels to 2012/2013?

Before we can even consider this question one needs to have a heart-to-heart with themselves on one major issue… Do you believe domestic equities are still in a secular bear market? If you do, continue on.  If not, there’s going…...

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