Where’s the SPX Currently Sit in Relation to History’s Average Secular Bear Market, ~145 Months after The Peak in 2000?
This chart has always been quite compelling given the close proximity to which the current secular bear market (black line) has tracked against the average secular bear market through history (red line). The values plotted are inflation-adjusted relative to prior…...
SPX Breaking Out? Going to Target New All-Time Highs?
Any repeating patterns this summer vs. last fall when the SPX broke out of a choppy consolidation zone following the August mini-crash? Also, any similarities between the rally off the 1987 crash lows and the rally off last August’s mini-crash…...
After Losing 2/3 of its Value, is There an Emerging Set-up in Cotton?
The chart below shows that the decline thus far off Cotton’s peak price in 2011 is among the worst for a former bubble. At this juncture (~+80 weeks after peak prices) only Silver’s decline off its 1980 top was worse. At the…...
Relative to Average Path other Assets Have Taken from Bubble Tops, Homebuilders, Despite 135% Rally, Remain Under-Valued
At the end of March 2012 I noted homebuilders appeared very under-valued vs. other bubbles at this juncture of their bubble peak price. I presented the chart below to justify this. Since that original post, the S&P Homebuilder Index has…...
10 & 30 Yr UST Prices Continue to Battle Long-Term Resistance; Analog to Japan Suggests Days of Yield Declines Near an End
The first charts below include 10 and 30 Yr UST prices. With their strong recent performance, both securities are battling long-term channel resistance dating back 27 years. Historically, per the red shades, this resistance has resulted in periods of declining…...
Revisiting the R2K – If History is Correct, Downside Risks Remain Elevated over Intermediate-Term
On 5/31/12 we ran a post on the R2K that suggested, based on its current price structure and momentum in the context of history, the path of least resistance for the index was lower, not higher, over the intermediate term…....
More Analysis Around the Potential for a Greek Exit / Drachma Reintroduction
A short while back we ran some detailed analysis on historical currency devaluation episodes and suggested that should Greece exit the Euro and reintroduce the Drachma, the time to buy Greek equities on a nominal basis would be at the time of…...
Outcomes for Equities Here & Contingency Planning for Each Potential Set-Up
I think there are two potential outcomes here: 1) Per the first chart below – the SPX daily – there’s a chance that the move off the late May / early June lows of ~1,280 and the choppy consolidation that then…...
How the Use of An Analog Would Have Had you Long at SPX 1,075 on 10/3/11
The chart below analogs the periods of July 1986-December 1987 and July 2010-October 2011. Without going into the additional historical statistical details of how one would triangulate or back into 1,075 as “the” point bottom to buy on 10/3/11, the…...
AAPL’s Run Highly Similar to Silver’s Parabolic Move; $1,000/$1 Trillion Cap Next?
Have attached two items to look at – one is a daily analog chart that compares the % increase in AAPL from January 2012 to current vs. the % increase SLV experienced from September 2010 to April 2011. These starting…...