What can We Learn by Comparing the SPX Sell-off From April’s Highs to Every other Major Top in History?
A few recent posts have focused on the 1900-1950 period where the 100%/50% rule was the norm – 100% cyclical rally, 50% cyclical bear. Here’s a chart showing that. The point was to highlight that period as a good template…...
Yet Another Data Point Registered with Today’s Gains (Should they Hold) that Suggests the Potential for a Major Move Higher over the Near or Intermediate-Term
This week the market was down each of the days Monday-Thursday and erased all of those losses on Friday with its large rally. This happened on 7/13 as well and has now happened only six times in history. We noted…...
If They Can’t Sell Hard & Fast Right Here, Stocks Are Likely Coiling For a Big Move Higher
We’ve posted repeatedly about the need for stocks, given the historical limitations of cyclical bull market rallies within secular bears, to sell hard and fast at this juncture if they are going to fall at all. We did that here,…
Additional Analysis of Historical Cycles Dating Back to 1896 Suggests a Near-Term Inflection Point for Markets
Wanted to dive further into the historical analysis of cyclical bull/bear cycles within secular bears. As we noted just a few days ago, the rally from the March 2009 lows appears extended in both magnitude and duration at this point…...
SPX Hasn’t Registered Many Positive Days Recently…Does This Suggest Anything about the Future?
If down today, the SPX will have been up only 35% of the trailing 20 trading days. Through history, the market goes up ~55% of the time on any given day. Regardless, the chart below shows other periods since the…...
If This Remains a Secular Bear, Cycle Analysis Dating Back to 1896 Suggests the Current Cyclical Rally is Extended in Magnitude and Duration
First chart below presents the DJIA on a weekly basis dating back to 1896 for pure context. The chart below is more important as it zooms in on the 1896-1950 period. This period was not unlike that experienced over the…...
Should the Historical Performance of the Rydex Cash Ratio Data Hold, the SPX Could Continue Pressing Higher
I want to continue reiterating what I believe is the importance of this post and the Rydex Cash Ratio data. In a world of so much information and noise, it is one of the most cogent arguments for a certain,…...
Where’s the SPX Currently Sit in Relation to History’s Average Secular Bear Market, ~145 Months after The Peak in 2000?
This chart has always been quite compelling given the close proximity to which the current secular bear market (black line) has tracked against the average secular bear market through history (red line). The values plotted are inflation-adjusted relative to prior…...
SPX Breaking Out? Going to Target New All-Time Highs?
Any repeating patterns this summer vs. last fall when the SPX broke out of a choppy consolidation zone following the August mini-crash? Also, any similarities between the rally off the 1987 crash lows and the rally off last August’s mini-crash…...
This Week’s Price Action in SPX Rare in Context of History (and Very Intermediate-Term Bullish Should History Hold)
This week the SPX was down every single day Monday-Thursday and then wiped out the entirety of those losses on Friday. This has happened only four other times in history dating back to 1928. The other days were 10/26/56, 11/15/57,…...