Analog Update: More Near-Term Downside Likely but Cyclical Outlook Remains Bullish
We’re updating our 4th and 5th consecutive annual gain analog in the charts below. First chart displays those years in history that have represented 4th consecutive annual gains. As we have often noted, including in our 10/24 analog update, if…...
If U.S. Bonds are the “Big Short” of the Next Decade, it Likely Means Japanese Equities are the “Big Long”
We got to thinking yesterday and came up with the chart below… It plots the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei against the 10 Yr UST price since 1998, when things really started going “global” with LTCM, the Russian FX…...
Revisiting Our Cycle Work Dating Back to 1896 for Perspective on the Rally off the March 2009 Lows
For some background on this topic check out this post here. A couple of months have passed since that original post so we thought it worthwhile to update the analog charts to see what has or hasn’t changed in terms of…...
Where are the Most Appropriate Places to be Levered & Long in Anticipation of a Cycle Bottom?
What I’ve attempted to do here is put together the easiest, yet most robust macro tool that I could fathom, that each of you can use in the future if for some reason(s) our working relationship end. In its simplest…...
Did Yesterday’s Open-Ended QE Announcement by the Fed Usher in a New Reflationary Wave?
The chart below shows the SPX on a weekly basis. Line (1) represents what we believe to be the market/economy’s most important line in the sand since 1987 – an on/off switch if you will. Why? This line is where…
Can Gold Now Target $3,000 With Miners Out-Performing on the Ride Up?
Back in the saddle, finally. I apologize for being away so long. Regardless, prior to stepping away, I had begun to shift our focus toward metals and away from equities with the thought being that the best trading opportunities were…...
The Dow Has Never Had Four Consecutive Annual Gains in a Secular Bear Market / Are Central Banks Breaking Historical Market Cycles?
Do you believe this is a secular bear market? If you do, take note that the Dow has never registered four consecutive annual gains in a secular bear market – EVER. And yet, it was up in each of 2009,…
Was October 2011 a Major Low for the SPX? Crazy to Suggest SPX 1,685-1,800 by Winter 2013?
Though it was very abrupt and amounted to only ~20%, the sell-off of last summer/fall in the SPX does share statistical similarities to history’s other major sell-offs and bear markets. When we became aware of this last year (and we…...
With 10 Yr Rates 25% Higher Since our Original Post, Were We Correct to Suggest on 7/17 that the Secular Bond Bull Was Nearing its End?
On July 17 we noted in a post that we believed the days of yield declines in UST securities was likely near an end. And we meant from a secular standpoint, not a cyclical one. We based this view on an…
Potential Set-Up for Equities into Jackson Hole, Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling on the ESM 9/12 and the Fed Meeting Concluding 9/13
I hope you’ve picked up on my tone becoming less bullish in the near-term. I’ve not become bearish, but I have become less sanguine about the potential for the market to rally at escape velocity speed in the near-term. In…...