Are Silver’s Best Days Ahead of It?
We struggle with silver. We know some see it as a currency, like gold. As such, QE and central banker largesse around the globe, which will likely go on ad infinitum, should naturally benefit the metal. However, at the same…...
Despite 175% Rally From August 2011, S&P Homebuilder Index Still Has ~20%-50% More Upside
I’ll reiterate my very simple thesis on homebuilders which I’ve maintained for quite some time now: They remain noticeably under-valued relative to where other bubbles tend to trade ~350-400 weeks after their peak bubble prices. This was much more so…
Given Their Tight Correlation, Could Weakness in Lumber Prices Drag Housing Stocks Lower Too?
During the week of 8/18/12 lumber prices gapped open to start the week ~275 bps higher and at the time, were already up an astounding 38% YoY. Lumber is typically a rather subdued commodity so we thought the gap higher…...
Taking a Look at Market Leadership Groups
The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. XLF. When the ratio falls, financials are out-performing the broader market. Since 2010, when the ratio has fallen to line (1) support, it has marked almost perfectly, broader market tops in…...
Relative to Average Path other Assets Have Taken from Bubble Tops, Homebuilders, Despite 135% Rally, Remain Under-Valued
At the end of March 2012 I noted homebuilders appeared very under-valued vs. other bubbles at this juncture of their bubble peak price. I presented the chart below to justify this. Since that original post, the S&P Homebuilder Index has…...
Spread Trade Opportunity within Homebuilders
The ratio of HOV vs. XHB has reached resistance on the weekly charts while HOV itself faces resistance as well. The ratio of HOV vs. XHB which currently stands at ~0.125, is up ~55% from its lows this May of…...