![Re-Thinking the Proper Analogs & Trading Environment](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-12-28-yoy-surges-to-at-least-20-from-less-than-0-in-a-quarter-15-negative-examples-at-3-months-weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Re-Thinking the Proper Analogs & Trading Environment
This post builds off my previous email today in which I effectively drew a line in the sand and pivoted to the “not bullish / mildly bearish” camp. As I noted in that email, with the Dow down ~340 bps…...
![Fresh Thoughts on the Ongoing Short Yen Trade](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-12-28-yen-monthly-with-12-month-ma1.png?resize=150%2C150)
Fresh Thoughts on the Ongoing Short Yen Trade
Our first high conviction short Yen trade came on August 14th in this post. At the time the Yen traded at ~1.27 vs. the current ~1.156, a decline of 9%+ over less than four months. Not too bad of a…
![Analog Update](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-12-27-1988-1989-vs-2012-2013-analog-daily.png?resize=150%2C150)
Analog Update
In an email in the week preceding Xmas I noted in the analog below that at point (A) there was a two-day, 175 bps sell-off in the Dow. This sell-off occurred over the days of 12/28/88-1/3/89. Given the way the…...
![Russell 2000 Faces Resistance on a Relative Basis & Could Under-Perform for Years](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-12-27-ratio-r2k-vs-spx-weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Russell 2000 Faces Resistance on a Relative Basis & Could Under-Perform for Years
Dating back to June of this year we have been suggesting that the potential for a longer-term reversal in the USD could lead to small-caps sustainably under-performing the broader market. We continue to believe this today. Even if the USD…