Re-Thinking the Proper Analogs & Trading Environment

Re-Thinking the Proper Analogs & Trading Environment

This post builds off my previous email today in which I effectively drew a line in the sand and pivoted to the “not bullish / mildly bearish” camp. As I noted in that email, with the Dow down ~340 bps…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Fresh Thoughts on the Ongoing Short Yen Trade

Fresh Thoughts on the Ongoing Short Yen Trade

Our first high conviction short Yen trade came on August 14th in this post. At the time the Yen traded at ~1.27 vs. the current ~1.156, a decline of 9%+ over less than four months. Not too bad of a…

Analog Update

Analog Update

In an email in the week preceding Xmas I noted in the analog below that at point (A) there was a two-day, 175 bps sell-off in the Dow. This sell-off occurred over the days of 12/28/88-1/3/89. Given the way the…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Russell 2000 Faces Resistance on a Relative Basis & Could Under-Perform for Years

Russell 2000 Faces Resistance on a Relative Basis & Could Under-Perform for Years

Dating back to June of this year we have been suggesting that the potential for a longer-term reversal in the USD could lead to small-caps sustainably under-performing the broader market. We continue to believe this today. Even if the USD…

More on the USD and Related Assets

More on the USD and Related Assets

Anybody find it ironic that the USD suggests the following… While the silver analog suggests this…? and the AMEX Gold Bugs Index is doing this…?...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Technicals Suggested RIMM Would be Down Big This Week

Technicals Suggested RIMM Would be Down Big This Week

On 12/12 behind a password-protected post on RIMM, we said the following about the name as it approached $14 that week: “In fact, it faces five major resistance points…all at the same time and all of which run to ~$13.65-$14.00…

Spread Trade Opportunity in Home Furnishings

Spread Trade Opportunity in Home Furnishings

Long WSM / short BBBY. The ratio b/t the two below broke out to the upside recently and over the past few weeks (especially this week with BBY’s post-EPS decline) appears to have successfully old resistance line (1) as new…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Sentiment

Sentiment

I did not Photoshop or doctor Yahoo Finance’s home page today. This snippet was taken at 1PM EST. See highlights for relevant sentiment. No additional commentary needed.

HLF Close to Support

HLF Close to Support

Maybe Bill Ackman is right and HLF is a pyramid scheme. I honestly don’t know the answer to that one. I do know the stock, should it hit ~$34 on a weekly closing basis, will be at rather important long-term…

Gold Bugs Index Breaking 13 Year Support

Gold Bugs Index Breaking 13 Year Support

The AMEX Gold Bugs Index is breaking 13 year monthly support line (1) in the chart below, dating back to 2000. We also provide an inset of the same chart on a weekly basis – it appears as if it’s…