Re-Thinking the Proper Analogs & Trading Environment
This post builds off my previous email today in which I effectively drew a line in the sand and pivoted to the “not bullish / mildly bearish” camp. As I noted in that email, with the Dow down ~340 bps…...
Fresh Thoughts on the Ongoing Short Yen Trade
Our first high conviction short Yen trade came on August 14th in this post. At the time the Yen traded at ~1.27 vs. the current ~1.156, a decline of 9%+ over less than four months. Not too bad of a…
Analog Update
In an email in the week preceding Xmas I noted in the analog below that at point (A) there was a two-day, 175 bps sell-off in the Dow. This sell-off occurred over the days of 12/28/88-1/3/89. Given the way the…...
Russell 2000 Faces Resistance on a Relative Basis & Could Under-Perform for Years
Dating back to June of this year we have been suggesting that the potential for a longer-term reversal in the USD could lead to small-caps sustainably under-performing the broader market. We continue to believe this today. Even if the USD…
More on the USD and Related Assets
Anybody find it ironic that the USD suggests the following… While the silver analog suggests this…? and the AMEX Gold Bugs Index is doing this…?...
Technicals Suggested RIMM Would be Down Big This Week
On 12/12 behind a password-protected post on RIMM, we said the following about the name as it approached $14 that week: “In fact, it faces five major resistance points…all at the same time and all of which run to ~$13.65-$14.00…
Spread Trade Opportunity in Home Furnishings
Long WSM / short BBBY. The ratio b/t the two below broke out to the upside recently and over the past few weeks (especially this week with BBY’s post-EPS decline) appears to have successfully old resistance line (1) as new…...
Sentiment
I did not Photoshop or doctor Yahoo Finance’s home page today. This snippet was taken at 1PM EST. See highlights for relevant sentiment. No additional commentary needed.
HLF Close to Support
Maybe Bill Ackman is right and HLF is a pyramid scheme. I honestly don’t know the answer to that one. I do know the stock, should it hit ~$34 on a weekly closing basis, will be at rather important long-term…
Gold Bugs Index Breaking 13 Year Support
The AMEX Gold Bugs Index is breaking 13 year monthly support line (1) in the chart below, dating back to 2000. We also provide an inset of the same chart on a weekly basis – it appears as if it’s…