Current Conditions in AAII Sentiment Survey Have Been Fulfilled only Eight Other Times Since 1987
Always struggle to find much value in the AAII Sentiment Survey data and commentary. That said, the conditions in this week’s survey data have been fulfilled only eight other times in history. Here are the conditions being filtered upon –…...
Getting Granular – RSI on SPY 60 Min Chart Once Again Elevated
The RSI on the SPY 60 min chart is once again reaching quite elevated levels. Over the past year, even as the market was working on or within a sustained up-trend, it has paid to wait for better entry prices…...
Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Continues to Suggest a Major Move in Risk Assets on the Horizon
We posted this same analysis a few weeks ago and are updating it now given it has changed since then (break-out in ratio occurring). The only times the ratio of copper vs. gold has been lower than it has been…...
Since Credit “Leads”, What’s the Macro Message Coming From Riskier Areas of the Credit Universe?
If credit leads and equity confirms, the message riskier areas of the credit universe are currently sending is far different from the one they were sending through much of 2007 and early 2008 as they deteriorated significantly in front of equity…...
SPX Breaking Out? Going to Target New All-Time Highs?
Any repeating patterns this summer vs. last fall when the SPX broke out of a choppy consolidation zone following the August mini-crash? Also, any similarities between the rally off the 1987 crash lows and the rally off last August’s mini-crash…...
After Losing 2/3 of its Value, is There an Emerging Set-up in Cotton?
The chart below shows that the decline thus far off Cotton’s peak price in 2011 is among the worst for a former bubble. At this juncture (~+80 weeks after peak prices) only Silver’s decline off its 1980 top was worse. At the…...
Relative to Average Path other Assets Have Taken from Bubble Tops, Homebuilders, Despite 135% Rally, Remain Under-Valued
At the end of March 2012 I noted homebuilders appeared very under-valued vs. other bubbles at this juncture of their bubble peak price. I presented the chart below to justify this. Since that original post, the S&P Homebuilder Index has…...
10 & 30 Yr UST Prices Continue to Battle Long-Term Resistance; Analog to Japan Suggests Days of Yield Declines Near an End
The first charts below include 10 and 30 Yr UST prices. With their strong recent performance, both securities are battling long-term channel resistance dating back 27 years. Historically, per the red shades, this resistance has resulted in periods of declining…...
Bio-Tech & Pharma Working on Break-Outs
Both bio-techs and pharmaceuticals are working on quality, long-term technical break-outs in the charts below. The set-up in bio-tech is the most compelling given that the DJ Bio-tech index has already cleared all-time highs from 2000. Should it break its next…...
This Week’s Price Action in SPX Rare in Context of History (and Very Intermediate-Term Bullish Should History Hold)
This week the SPX was down every single day Monday-Thursday and then wiped out the entirety of those losses on Friday. This has happened only four other times in history dating back to 1928. The other days were 10/26/56, 11/15/57,…...