Nikkei Update
On the left chart below we find resistance line (1), or our “thin red line“, on the cusp of potentially giving way to more Nikkei upside. This technical barrier remains of the highest import to the future outcome of the…...
August 1990
U.S. equities are at a very critical juncture. Though I have repeatedly pronounced that “risks remain to the upside” this year, nowhere on the site have I suggested or openly advocated a major over-weight in any type of index-related ETF…...
Analog Update
Abnormal days that jolt the spirit of the market’s existing trend, like yesterday’s ~200 bps loss, are good points in time to do a broad analog update. Here’s the 4th-5th-6th consecutive annual gain analog. Haven’t shown it in quite a…...
Nikkei 225 Components Tearing Through Quarter-Century Resistance to Upside
In the chart below I present a handful of Nikkei 225 components that are tearing through quarter-century resistance via upside break-outs. In each case this resistance dates back to the stocks’ all-time highs coinciding with the Nikkei’s own all-time high…...
Triggers to the Next Leg of the Nikkei Run
Last night Japan’s CPI printed +3.6% YoY in June, down from 3.7% YoY in the prior month, but holding steady at near 23 year highs per the chart below. This is key and core to our ongoing Japan/Nikkei thesis –…...
Gold, Rarely a Rush
We’ve had two posts on gold over the past few months, one in March and one this week. Both centered around the idea that the metal was either posed or had actually managed to close above its 12 month MA…...
Significant Upside Remains for Equities over Remaining Few Years of Bull Market
I’ve updated the 4th-5th-6th consecutive annual gain analog below. The 1988-1990 and 1994-1996 plots are DJI and the 2012-2014 plot is SPX. Note how closely these things continue to track. Though the 2012-current plot had resembled 1988-1990 so closely for…...
Time Spent Waiting
It’s been approximately five months since we became ardent supporters of the idea that the Nikkei, following its initial sprint rally from fall 2012 into its May 2013 peak at 16K (an initial rally which we foresaw well before anybody…...
Silver Breakdown?
On 2/19/14 we used some robust historical stats on gold to suggest a position in the PM space w/ related miner exposure. At the time gold stood at ~$1,320 and silver ~$21.50, resulting in ~3% and 12% losses, respectively if…...
Whistling Past the Graveyard?
I’ve shown an analog chart many times in the past ~month or so detailing historical examples of how the DJI has traded after it has managed to close a month at least 32% above its 48 month MA for the…...